I’m making a few changes to the NFL Hangover column.
I love doing the game storylines as I watch, but I’m going to narrow it down to 2-4 games per week, just to keep the post length manageable.
There were only a few games that really intrigued me this week, with the stand-outs both being early games. The battle of the undefeated teams, New York @ New Orleans and a battle of running games and tough defenses, Baltimore @ Minnesota. The running observations are at the tail end of this post.
To introduce the new addition to our weekly column, I’d like you to refer to the following quote.
“It's kind of like having a girl on the side, you know? When you need her, she's there. You know she's always going to be there no matter what you put her through. That's what Tashard Choice is like."
Cowboys Martellus Bennett on DallasCowboys.com
Bennett did a great job of describing the merits of statistical analysis, sort of. Statistics tell us a big part of the story in sports, but should be used in addition to observation and considered in context. Each week, I’ll attempt to enlighten you a little with the Tashard Choice honorary analysis section.
Sports Opinionated’s “Choice” Analysis
Many of the stats in this section are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
Brady Quinn vs Derek Anderson
With the Browns now at 1-5, and very little hope of making the play-offs, it makes sense to find out what they’ve got at quarterback for the future. Some will argue that Quinn needs a shot and some will say the Anderson has proven his worth. Let’s see what the numbers tell us. This truly is a decent comparison since both players are using the exact same supporting cast and the exact same system. It’s not like we’re trying to compare Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.
Given what we see in comparison, the Browns are really in trouble at the QB position, regardless of who they pick. With negative DYARs and DVOAs, both players are performing worse than the average player at their position. That said, Quinn’s performance has actually been better than Anderson’s so far in 2009 and that is despite having less than half the reps of his competitor over the last 2 years.
My recommendation would be to give Brady Quinn the starter’s job for the rest of the year, given that NFL defenses have obviously found a way to stop Anderson after his one good season, and the Browns have never given Quinn an extended period in which to acclimatize to the NFL and improve.
Vince Young vs Kerry Collins
Along the same lines as our analysis of the Browns QB situation, is the controversy brewing in Tennessee. Last year, Kerry Collins got the nod as the starter and the Titans went 13-3. Collins got a lot of the credit for this resurgence. This year they are 0-6, and Young has still barely set foot on the field.
With Young’s contract up at the end of this year, it still might be worth letting him play 3 or 4 games given that he might have learned from Collins on the sidelines. Most likely though, the Titans will be in search of a young QB in the offseason.
Visanthe Shiancoe’s “Crazy” Contract
No, we’re not talking about the contract offered to him by the adult film industry after he was exposed on national television. We’re talking about the supposedly careless contract that was offered to him by the Vikings in 2007. At the time, he had played in 64 games and only had 35 catches for 253 yards and 3 TDs in his career. Most of us thought that offering him $18.2M over 5 years was a terrible idea. After watching him play against the Ravens, I got to wondering how crazy it actually was.
I found this article describing the top 10 tight end salaries in the NFL and decided to compare Shiancoe’s salary and performance versus those players.
In the 1 full season and 6 games this season since signing the contract, I’d say that Shiancoe has been a better value than any of the top 10 wage earners.
In 2008, he had the 2nd highest DYAR, the highest DVOA and a completion rate comparable to anyone else. He may have been underused, given that information.
In 2009, he again has the 2nd highest DYAR, the 2nd highest DVOA and a top Completion %. It appears that the Vikings are seeing his value in the red zone, given his 5 TDs, but are again under-utilizing him given the production he gets from half the targets of the more well-known TE’s.
It could be that Shiancoe is very effective in a limited role, but not the caliber of player to thrive if he was the focus of opposing defenses, but his performance definitely dispels the myth that the Vikes overpaid for him and he warrants a closer look on gameday.
Quick Observations
The Vikings might be 6-0, but they are two very close plays away from being 4-2. The Greg Lewis catch and a missed 44-yard field goal have kept them undefeated. They’re still one of the best 5 teams in the NFL right now, but they haven’t dominated teams as thoroughly as the Saints, as some people would lead us to believe.
One week after mentioning that there are several terrible teams in the NFL, both Kansas City and Oakland pulled off upsets. Granted, KC’s win was over the equally hapless Redskins, but the Raiders beat a decent Eagles team – which is truly impressive.
The Broncos have taken an absolutely commanding lead in the AFC West with a big win over the Chargers last night. To add to the Norv Turner Questionable Coaching Decisions archive, he opted to go for it on 4th & 8 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter and only down by 4 points. I understand that the field goal doesn’t win the game, but it would have put the Chargers within a point and there was still plenty of time to make a defensive stand. On top of that, it’s not easy to convert 4th and 8, and the field position given up if they don’t convert is much worse than if they’d kicked a FG and then kicked off. Bill Simmons had a great idea the other day on one of his podcasts. He suggested that each team having some kid on the sideline who had played thousands of games on Madden, giving the coach tips about clock management for just these types of situations. He figured that some video game addict would have seen these situations many more times than the average coach, and could therefore process the information more quickly and without other distractions. If any team should experiment with this idea, it’s the Chargers, just to counteract the Norv Effect.
There were 2 injuries to defensive lineman this week that could have a monstrous effect on their team’s season. With Antwan Odom, the NFL’s leading sacker, likely to miss the rest of the season, the Bengals could struggle to get a consistent pass rush. The injury to NT Kris Jenkins, on the other hand, will severely impair the Jets ability to stop the run. Jenkins also occupied 2 blockers on a regular basis, making it easier for the Jets to get a free rusher to the quarterback on many of their overload blitzes.
Live Game Observations
Giants (27) at Saints (48)
Early in the game, Drew Brees threw a ball to Lance Moore which deflected off of 2 defenders and once he caught it, he got laid out by the safety, CC Brown. I can’t believe he hung onto it. Pierre Thomas is looking good and picking his path through the defense. Mike Bell finishes the drive with a TD leap over the pile on 4th and inches. 7-0 Saints.
With the Giants set to get the ball, it seems to me that they will use the explosiveness of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham to exploit the Saints blitz-based defense. On 3rd and 3, Eli Manning attempts to do just that with a deep pass to Dominik Hixon, but it’s slightly under thrown and Jabari Greer uses a phenomenal burst of speed to catch up and knock the pass down.
On the Saints very next drive, they mixed up the run and pass well enough to keep the Giants defensive front off balance. Brees hits Colston for a great deep pass between two defenders, right down to the 2 yard line. On a play-action pass, Shockey gets open in the back of the end zone. Touchdown, 14-0 Saints.
On 3rd and 5, Manning has Smith for a sure TD, and overthrows him by about a foot. That’s two missed touchdown opportunities now. New York is forced to settle for a FG. 14-3.
On the next drive, Brees hits a receiver straight up the field on a bomb for another touchdown. The pass was decent, but to the wrong shoulder and the Giants defensive backs should have made a play on it. It could have been an interception if they hadn’t sat back so passively. 20-3 Saints after a blocked extra point.
With the Giants moving the ball, Eli has to pass under pressure and is picked off by Darren Sharper for a TD. Unfortunately for the Saints, the play is called back because Jonathan Vilma took a roughing-the-passer penalty. What a terribly stupid play, when it wasn’t needed. The Giants get to keep the ball, move up 15 yards and cap off their drive with a touchdown by Ahmad Bradshaw to make it 20-10. If the Giants make a comeback, Vilma’s penalty will be the turning point.
As if to make sure the Giants didn’t have a chance, Brees hit Lance Moore for a touchdown on play-action after a pass interference call got them inside the red zone. 27-10 Saints.
The Giants managed to claw their way back down the field as Eli hit Manningham for a TD to reduce the lead to 27-17 Saints. The last two Giants drives were fueled by great kick returns from Hixon.
There is 2:53 left in the first half when the Saints get the ball. Brees hits an open Colston on the first play and Colston again in traffic on the second. Pierre Thomas makes a run, followed by a reverse for Meachem. The Giants stuffed Mike Bell on third down and Thomas on fourth. A huge goal-line stand looks like it might have swung the momentum to the Giants.
With 1:00 left in the half, Manningham catches a pass up the middle but on the next play, Manning was hit hard by Roman Harper on a safety blitz which forces a fumble. The Saints recover. They convert to a TD for a 34-17 lead at the half, and the game is all but over.
The Giants were never back in the game from that point on.
Ravens (31) at Vikings (33)
In the first quarter, Brett Favre hits Shiancoe with a nice toss to the endzone and Shiancoe makes a beautiful, fingertip catch. The Vikes are up 7-0 and I’m immediately intrigued by how Shiancoe measures up against other TE’s in the league. Take a look at the SO “Choice” Analysis section above to find out.
On the Vikes 2nd possession, Favre hits Bernard Berrian for a TD to go up 14-0. They now have 9 touchdowns in their last 9 trips to the red zone. That is phenomenal.
One of the better matchups in this game is the Ravens running offense versus the Vikings historically good running defense.
Early on, it looks like Minny’s defense is winning the battle, but Flacco gets them to bite on play-action, and narrowly misses Derrick Mason deep. The Ravesn are forced to punt and have now gone 3 and out on their first 2 drives.
After a defensive hold, the Ravens punt returner lets the ball go and it rolls inside the 10 yard line. Wouldn’t it be better to just call for a fair catch at the 18 yard line, than risk being pinned inside your own 10? The only upside to letting it bounce is that it goes into the endzone and the ball is spotted at the 20. All that risk for a measly 2 yards? Shoot me.
In the 2nd quarter, Baltimore seems to have made a few defensive adjustments. They were completely hapless on the Vikes first two drives, but now seem to be getting more pressure on Favre and providing much better coverage in the secondary.
With 2 minutes to go, the Ravens have the ball. Flacco missed the chance to catch Minnesota with 12 defenders on the field with a quick snap. Instead, he kept surveying the field before getting the ball snapped. Later in the same drive, he had 2 “free plays” from the defense jumping offside, and still only dumped the ball to receivers underneath the zone. A veteran quarterback would take a shot downfield in those scenarios, knowing that there is no risk.
Apparently Flacco heard me, as Minny jumped offside for the 3rd time and Flacco hit a deep pass down the right sideline with 12 seconds left. With time for one shot towards the endzone before kicking a field goal, Flacco dumps it off to Ray Rice for a 1 yard gain. Maybe the Ravens should hire a “Madden kid” for their offense. This is ridiculous. FG 14-3 Vikes at the half.
In the 2nd half, Minnesota manages an early FG to take a 17-3 lead. On the next drive, Flacco hits Mason a couple times down the sidelines and then over the middle to Todd Heap. On the next play, Ray Rice breaks 4 tackles for a 25 yard touchdown run that should be shown as a stiff-arm instructional video. 17-10 Vikes.
Favre hits Sidney Rice on a slant and he breaks the run for 63 yards down to the 5 yard line. After 3 ugly plays, the Vikes kick a FG to make it 20-10, but I can feel the momentum switching to the Ravens.
On the Vikes next drive, the Ravens jump offside and what do you think Favre does? He goes deep, like he’s supposed to. The pass draws a pass interference call and the Vikings are already inside the 10 yard line. Favre hits Shiancoe for his 2nd TD of the day, 27-10.
Flacco won’t be outdone and drives his team back down the field. They cap off the drive with a 32 yard pass to Mark Clayton for a TD. 27-17. The Ravens are refusing to give up on this game.
Adrian Peterson finally makes his presence known with a 58 yard run, and is barely pushed out of bounds. On the next play, with 6:30 left in the 4th quarter, AP limps off with what looks like an ankle injury. Several Vikes fans just yelled at their children for no good reason. The Vikes managed a FG for a 30-17 lead that seems insurmountable.
Ray Rice apparently eats “insurmountable” for breakfast. He just took a short pass 62 yards down the field and Flacco completed a TD pass to Mason to close the gap to 30-24.
This seems like a good time to mention that Ray Rice is awesome, I’m just saying.
On the kickoff return, Percy Harvin jams is shoulder and is slowly helped off the field. That said, AP is back on. Those same “yelled at” kids, just got offered an ice cream cone. As Favre surveys the field, Ray Lewis comes on a delayed blitz and crushes him for an 8 yard loss. Whoa. On 3rd & 18, Favre is almost sacked in the end zone. Punt.
From shotgun, Flacco hands to Ray Rice, who crosses the formation to the left and scampers 33 yards for a TD, without being touched. 31-30 for the Ravens with 3:37 left in the game. The Metrodome is in a state of shock.
Favre answers with a bomb to S. Rice that takes the Vikes to the opposing 20 yard line. AP is stuffed on the next play. With 2:46 left on the clock, the Vikes need to keep running time off since they’re already in field goal range. AP is stuffed again on the next play and the Ravens use a time out. On 3rd down, when Minny runs again, the fans booed the play call. This does not help my opinion of Vikings fans. The Vikes kick a FG to go up 33-31 with 2 minutes to go.
It’s time to see if Flacco learned anything from his 2 minute drive to end the half. He dumps to Rice under pressure, goes over the middle to Kelley Washington and dumps off to Rice again. There’s 1 minute left.
As a side note, the Ravens are running plays out of shotgun with a RB on either side of Flacco. I like this formation because it leaves 3 receivers in patterns but keeps the defense guessing as to which RB will be held back in pass protection and which one will peel off into a safe pattern. It’s a great way to pick up yardage when the deeper routes aren’t open.
Flacco goes up the left to Mason, 1st down. The Ravens try a fake spike and fade route, but it’s stopped. On the next play, they run the draw to Rice and spike the ball with 2 seconds left on the clock. Great clock management and a nice mix of plays.
The Ravens kicker, however, misses a 44 yard field goal, just barely left of the goal post. Minnesota wins the game, but the Ravens know they can hang with any team in the league.
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