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Sports-Opinionated Creator and Author

Website Renovations!

Just a quick note to let you know that we're making some changes to the site.  It may be down or look a little different over the next couple days.  Also, it may take a few days to get the mailing list updated as well.

We're hoping to unveil our new look by Saturday or Sunday.

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Superbowl Analysis & Opinions

Another year, and another playoff disappointment for Colts fans. It seems odd to be so dominant in the regular season, and yet the team seems to perennially come up short in the post-season. In case you haven’t guessed already, or are not a regular reader, I’m a Colts fan. Now that I’ve had a couple days to let the loss sink in, here are my thoughts.


The Saints deserved to win this game. They played aggressively, left nothing on the field and went for the win in every facet of the game. They had the bravery and confidence to try an onside kick, go for it on 4th and 1, and to jump a route on a crucial 4th quarter drive. I am genuinely happy for Drew Brees, Sean Payton, the organization and especially their fans.

I do, however, disagree with a variety of opinions that I’ve heard about on TV, the radio and several columns and blogs. Here are my views on when those people should “turn up the good” and “turn down the suck”.

Turn Down the Suck #1 – Pierre Garcon’s Drop Killed the Colts Momentum
This is only partially true. Up 10-3 and driving once again. Garcon’s drop had a stalling affect on the Colts offense. The real problem though, was the Saints offense putting together long drives before and after the Colts’ 3 and out.

The Saints had the ball for five and a half minutes to start the 2nd Quarter and after Garcon’s drop went on another six and a half minute drive. If the Colts defense holds them to a short drive, the Garcon drop isn’t nearly as crucial

The drop by Marques Colston earlier in the 1st quarter was much worse, and his offense recovered just fine. One drop isn’t a game-changer if it’s in the 1st half and doesn’t involve a touchdown.

Turn Down the Suck #2 – The Colts Used WR Screens & the Running Game to Negate the Saints Blitzing Defense
Again, this is partially true. Joseph Addai was great in this game with 13 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately the Colts went away from him in the 4th quarter, when they still had plenty of time on the clock. That said, the receiver screens that the Colts ran for Austin Collie were hideous. The blocking was non-existent at first and the last one they threw, he ran way from his own blocking.

If the Colts wanted to use the screen, they needed to hit Dallas Clark or Pierre Garcon on those plays, as they’re both more comfortable in that role than Collie.

Turn Down the Suck #3 – The Saints Going For It on 4th And Goals Was a Good Call
Sean Payton got lucky. If the Saints were in this situation in the middle of the quarter, then I would love it. Going for it on 4th and Goal with a good offense makes a lot of sense. If it’s successful, it’s a dagger to the Colts defense and if it fails, the offense is pinned and the Saints can get the ball back in great field position.

The only reason I don’t like this call, is because it was at the end of the half. If the Colts weren’t so conservative on 3rd down, the Saints never see the ball again.

Turn Down the Suck #4 – The 51 Yard FG Attempt Was a Bad Decision
Let me clarify this. The 51-yarder was definitely a bad decision with a kicker so old that he remembers when The Who were actually good. That said, the poor decision was on the play BEFORE the field goal. The Colts were facing 3rd and 11 from the Saints 33 yard line. Manning threw a pass deep down the middle to Collie, which was defended by Jonathan Vilma underneath and a safety over the top.

The Colts were up 17-16 at the time and facing the aforementioned 51-yarder if they don’t move the ball. Why try for the impossible touchdown pass? In this situation, Manning should be looking for the first down, and at the very least a 7 or 8 yard gain. Even if he doesn’t get the conversion, at least stover is faced with a 43 or 44 yarder.

To be even more technical, an article on Advanced NFL Stats explains this exact scenario much to my own egotistical vindication. They state that the Colts had a Win Probability (WP) of 0.71 (or 71%) after Manning completed the pass to Reggie Wayne on 4th and 2. When Manning’s pass to Collie fell incomplete, the Colts had a WP of 0.59. After missing the 51-yarder, it fell to 0.47.

In the span of 4 plays, the Colts had dropped their probability of winning from 71% to 47%.

Turn Down the Suck #5 – Peyton Manning Threw a Terrible Interception
The interception itself was a game-ending play, there’s no debating that fact. The interception was not a major Manning blunder though.

Four things conspired to make the interception happen, and only one or two were in Manning’s full control.

1. The Colts called a variation of a play they’d run only two plays earlier. I’m not sure if this was Tom Moore or Manning, but it was a mistake.

2. Tracey Porter recognized the play and made an AMAZING jump on the ball. Don’t just blame the offense, credit a great defensive play.

3. Reggie Wayne made a terrible cut. If he breaks inside as he’s supposed to, the pass is probably still incomplete, but it’s unlikely that Porter catches the ball and takes it to the house.

4. Manning threw a pass on an inside-breaking route, when Porter was clearly playing inside technique. This doesn’t make it a terrible throw, but it’s not an incredibly safe throw either. When he saw Porter shading inside, he could have gone to another option.




Turn Down the Suck #6 – Colts Fans Whining About Peyton Being Blocked in the Back on the INT Return
Yes, he was blocked in the back. Yes, the rule says the ball should have been spotted at the place of the foul. Yes, that interpretation would negated Tracey Porter’s TD.

Guess what? Sometimes the refs miss a call in the heat of a big play. Stop whining.

Also, if the Saints got to keep the ball, they’d just start another long, clock-eating drive. The Colts defense hadn’t stopped the Saints from scoring once in the entire 2nd half. It was actually better for the Colts that the Saints scored quickly.

Turn Up The Good #1 – The Colts Got Too Conservative
This is extremely true. Peyton Manning has been an absolute killer all year in the 2 minute drill. The Colts ran twice out of their endzone after stuffing the Saints 4th and Goal attempt. They were up 10-3, had 0:51 on the clock and were facing 3rd and 1 with 90 yards to go to the endzone.

In the regular season or against the Jets in the AFC Championship, the Colts would spread the formation and let Peyton work his magic. Suddenly, they shut down their best weapon. Peyton handed it off to Addai up the middle, and the Saints stuffed the play.

When the Saints got the ball back, they came back and kicked their second field goal to make it 10-6.

Turn Up the Good #2 – The Onside Kick Was a Great Call
Rarely do I disagree with Bill Simmons, but this is one of those times. In his podcast, he mentions that the onside kick was a bad call because if Hank Baskett had held onto the ball, the Colts were going to get great field position.

According to the great team at Football Outsiders, unexpected onside kicks have historically been recovered at a rate of 70.5%. This one was so unexpected that I almost choked on a meatball (true story).

The chances of recovery were in the Saints favor and it was a monstrous contributor to the Saints win. The Saints had 9 possessions in the game to the Colts 8, and the onside kick was just as good as getting a turnover from the Saints defense.

Turn Up the Good #3 – This Blogger Lost a Pick ‘Em Contest to His Mom.

Yes, it’s true. We launched the Dignity Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs as a way to spice up our playoff picks. All three writers from the site picked against our moms and sweated out every game.

Pete won the championship and I ended up losing to my mom in a tiebreaker. It hurts to admit, but it’s true. Marty got lucky as he squeaked out a 1 point tie-break win, but was humbled nonetheless. Here are the final standings:

The Dignity Bowl – Superbowl

It’s taken two weeks of hype, ignoring a Pro Bowl that no one cares about, and way too much worrying about Dwight Freeney’s ankle. It’s finally here, the Dignity Bowl finale. Oh yeah, it’s also the Superbowl.

Every angle has been dissected, every fan is having a nervous breakdown (myself included) and the party food has been prepared.

So who’s going to win? We’ve got a variety of opinions

The Line:  New Orleans @ Indianapolis -4.5

Ryan’s Perspective

The Saints have the most balanced, well-designed offense the Colts have played all year. The passing offense is better than the Patriots aerial attack that moved the ball on the Colts all game. The Saints running offense is the most efficient in the league. The Saints will move the ball, and the Colts will do their best to limit big plays with safety coverage over the top. The Saints play action is the biggest threat.

Freeney will play, he’s a gamer. If the Colts are smart, they’ll put him in only on 3rd and long in order to limit his exposure on run plays.

If the Colts gave up 17 points to the Jets, then the Saints could score 34 easily.

On the other side of the ball, I can’t believe how many analysts are talking about Gregg Williams’ defensive gameplanning like it’s the solution to every NFL offense. For starters, the Vikings scored 28 points and racked up 31 first downs despite having 5 turnovers. The turnovers were dumb, not necessarily great plays by the defense.

The Colts put up 30 points on the Jets defense, which was the best in the league, by a mile. Peyton Manning is better than Brett Favre and the Colts receivers are better than the Vikes group. The Saints will likely put Greer on Garcon and double Reggie Wayne with a corner and a safety. That leaves a lot of room for Austin Collie and Dallas Clark to operate over the middle and Manning will find them.

The Saints defence is also susceptible to the run, especially up the middle. The Colts on the other hand, are not a great running team, but their strength is up the middle. This could provide Manning with a great play-changing option at the line when the Saints are in a deep zone.

The Colts could score 40 if the offense continues to roll the way it has throughout the playoffs.

Overall, I think the Saints are easily the toughest matchup all year for the Colts because Brees and the Saints offense will force Manning to be perfect in order to keep pace. That said, Peyton is playing for a spot in history and has looked as unstoppable as any player in recent memory. Momentum matters.

I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 4.5 points. In case of a tiebreaker, my prediction for total points is 60.

Pete’s Perspective

Well, here we are. I have the Dignity Bowl all wrapped up. I knew I would be in this position when we started. I knew I would easily handle my end of the bargain while the other SO contributors would struggle to keep up with their mothers. Yes, their own mothers!

While I will be cheering on my pick in the Super Bowl, I will be cheering even more loudly for Marty and Ryan to lose.

As for my selection, I predict that Peyton will lift the Lombardi trophy for the second time in his illustrious career. On Super Bowl Sunday, we will watch Peyton ruthlessly dissect the Saints’ defense while controlling the clock and keeping Brees and his four receiver sets off the field.

The last time Peyton won the Super Bowl, they had a great passing attack, a good running game and a suspect defense. It was this defense that led many experts to write off the Colts. This year, the Colts are once again led by a great passing attack and a more balancing running game. This time around, the one glaring difference is that despite missing some key players to injuries; the Colts defense looks much more complex and solid. The Saints will find it hard to run against the Colts and the Saints will have to rely on the pass.

We know the Colts will score on the Saints. What remains to be seen is how the Colts defensive backs will fair against the speedy receivers and the strong arm of Brees and the Saints. I believe Peyton eating up the clock will minimize the amount of possessions that Brees, Bush & Colston will get.

The game could be lower scoring than many believe. This is why I feel that the 4.5-point spread is a little bit too large however I feel that if the Colts can score early, the spread can be covered.

Sorry New Orleans. I know you took a beating and many will be cheering for you for all that hurricane Katrina put you through however the reality is, Peyton is the best quarterback of a generation.

I will take the Colts and give up 4.5 points to the sentimental favorite Saints.

More importantly, I look forward to be crowned Dignity Bowl Champion for 2010.

Marty’s Perspective

Here is what it comes down to: I am really cheering for New Orleans. I will be wearing my Brees jersey, and cheering hard. But the fact is that Peyton Manning is playing at the top of his game, and has been carving up defences like nobody’s business. The only way the Saints really take this one handily is if Curtis Painter has to make an unscheduled appearance.

Go Saints, But I will take the Colts -4.5

The Mom’s Perspective

Kim – I really like the city of New Orelans and where are the Colts from again? Oh yeah, Indianapolis, I don’t like it there. I want to pick the opposite of Ryan, so I’ll take New Orleans. (after much mumbling of numbers and addition) And I’ll take 55 points total.

Maria – You know the Colts are going to win right? So I’ll take the Saints. I’ve supported the Colts all along but I know the rest of you are going to pick the Colts, so I’ll take the Saints.

Norma

Norma: I will take the Colts -4.5. I am very confident in this pick.
Marty: ‘What are you taking for the tiebreaker?’
Norma: ‘Tiebreaker?’
Marty: ‘Yeah....total point...I am taking 50.’
Norma: ‘What does that mean?’
Marty: ‘Really? It’s the total of both teams points put together.’
Norma: ‘........’
Marty: ‘So I said it’s going to be 50. I think the final score will be something like 27-23. 27 + 23 = 50.’

Norma: ‘oh...ok...I get it...I think. I will take.....45...?’

Marty: ‘ok.

Final Words

Here is a summary of our picks.

Enjoy the game, enjoy the commercials, eat your face off and hopefully we’ll be toasting another Colts Superbowl by late Sunday night.

Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com

Is It Juventus’ Turn to Try The 3-man Defense?

As I wrote about a few months ago, I was supportive of Rafa Benitez’s decision to use a 3-man back line against Sunderland. I also thought he might have been on to something with a 3-4-3 formation rather than a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2. I felt the 3-4-3 matched up well with both the 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 being used in the EPL so often.


Lately, there has been a lot of speculation that Alberto Zaccheroni will have Juventus switch to a 3-man defense, utilizing a 3-4-1-2 in order to keep Diego as a central playmaker. The first test of this new formation could be against a 3-5-2 employed by Livorno.

I firmly believe that formations need to vary depending on the players at a manager’s disposal and the opposition he is likely to face on a regular basis. With that in mind, take a look at the prospects of Zaccheroni’s Juventus and their potential new lineup.

Personnel

On defense, there would be some definite advantages to having Georgio Chiellini, Nicola Legrotaglie and Fabio Cannavaro on the pitch at the same time. Cannavaro would thrive as a sweeper while the other two work very well as marking defenders.

At the wingback position, Juventus has 3 players who could excel in Paolo De Ceglie, Martin Caceres and Zdenek Grygera. All 3 like to push forward, have decent pace and also defend well. They also operate better moving forward than when being asked to play a purely defensive role.

In the center of the midfield, Juventus has plenty of talent. Both Sissoko and Melo are best when used in a holding role while Candreva and Marchisio are solid two-way players. Pairing one tackler and one creator would ensure that the midfield had a spine while maintaining some distributive talent.

Both Diego and his understudy, Sebastian Giovinco, are capable of playing the trequartista role. Giovinco is also dangerous down the wing, while Diego has proven to be ineffective when moved out wide. Juventus have Mauro Camoranesi to use as a playmaker or down the wing if Diego is incapable.

At forward, the Bianconeri are currently a little thin due to injuries to David Trezeguet and Vincenzo Iaquinta. Luckily they have two top quality forwards in Amauri and Alessandro Del Piero to play at the moment. Unfortunately, neither has been playing very well this season.

Juventus definitely has the starting quality and depth to play either a 3-4-1-2 or a 3-4-3, with the only real question mark being depth behind the starters on the defensive line.

Formation Matchups

At the moment, Serie A is seeing a lot of teams line up in a 4-3-1-2 formation, some in a 4-5-1 and a few with a 4-3-3. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe the 3-4-3 is a much better tactical match for the 4-5-1 than the 3-4-1-2, but let’s examine the other two matchups.

The 3-4-1-2 actually matches up reasonably well against the 4-3-1-2. The lack of midfield & attacking width in the 4-3-1-2 ensures that the space behind the wingbacks isn’t exploited easily. The team employing the 3-4-1-2 should have a definitive possession advantage in midfield, without giving up too much on defense. The 3-man backline works very well against 2 forwards and even provides the flexibility to step up if one of the forwards is dropping deep for the ball. The sweeper can cover the space behind the marker.

Against the 4-3-3, it appears that the 3 man back line is at a huge disadvantage. Unless the wingbacks drop back far enough to effective change the formation to a 5-man defense, the opposition wingers will always be able to exploit the space behind them. Giving up a wide attacking angle isn’t always a terrible thing, but on the counter-attack it could be devastating.

Utilizing a 3-4-3 for this match-up at least allows the wingbacks to drop a bit and maintain defensive width, but could leave the midfield overwhelmed.

The use of a 3-man back with a sweeper may also be an interesting way of dealing with the False 9, as explained here , by designating the sweeper to cover space behind the marker when the False 9 drops off, or designating the sweeper as the defender to step forward. Either way, there are still 2 central defenders and the wing-backs to chase wide attackers.

Thoughts on if it will work

I am cautiously positive that Zac’s formation will work for Juventus. They certainly have the personnel to make it work and even to switch between a 3-4-1-2 and a 3-4-3. The real question will be whether his players buy into the system and if they can execute the gameplan. Either way, I’m happy to see a little more tactical diversity and will definitely be tuning in to the Livorno match to catch my first glimpse.

The Manning Family: A Guest Post from RWWF

Below is a guest post by Sarah from her blog Real Women Watch Football.  Give her blog a visit if you like what she's written.

As everyone knows, the Indianapolis Colts are playing the New Orleans in the Super Bowl on Sunday. So what has been the focus of this game since day one? How the Saints have finally gotten to their first Super Bowl or how New Orleans has rallied around the Saints this season, giving it a new life after the city was all but demolished by Hurricane Katrina a little over 4 years ago? No, of course not. The focus is the Manning family.


For anyone who hasn’t turned on a television for two weeks, let me briefly explain why. The Mannings are to New Orleans as the Kennedys are to Massachusetts (minus all the tragedies).

Archie, Peyton and Eli’s father, was drafted by the Saints (2nd overall) in 1971 and played for 10 years there. While the team never had a winning season, good old Archie played his heart out while he was there, despite having an awful team. In 1972, he led the NFL in passing yard, he was the UPI’s NFC Player of the Year in 1978, and he was in the Pro Bowl in ’78 and ’79. Even though he didn’t end his career as a Saint (he went to the Oilers from 82-83 and the Vikings from 83-84) he made his home in New Orleans. All three of his sons, Cooper, Peyton, and Eli grew up in New Orleans, graduated high school there, and I can only assume, were/are huge Saints fans.

As I said, the Mannings are royalty in New Orleans. Saints fans actually love the Manning family so much that they root for the Colts (I don’t know about the Giants—see my side note). There are a lots of #18 Colts jerseys and apparently during the 2006 Super Bowl, when the Colts played the Bears, many people in New Orleans decked out their houses out in blue and white. I can guarantee you that those blue jerseys have been put away and there will be no houses in blue and white come Sunday.

Side note: When Archie and his wife returned to their house in New Orleans after Katrina hit, they found that someone had broken into it. Archie had a bunch of signed jerseys from Peyton and Eli and the looters took all of Peyton’s; None of Eli’s. When I read this, it brought me more joy than I can explain in words.

So when the Saints won in overtime against the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl, who was the first person interviewed? Archie. Everyone wanted to know what team he would be rooting for February 7th, his favorite team or his favorite son. Of course he chose blood and will be cheering for the Colts. As will Cooper Manning, the oldest Manning kid whose football career was cut short due to a narrowing of his spinal canal. At least Cooper is being honest about the whole thing, saying, “it’s going to be a little awkward.” He is friends with Drew Brees and his kids are huge Saints fans. I can just see it now, the Saints will score and Archie and Cooper will jump up in excitement and then remember that they have to cheer for the Colts. They will slowly sit down and say, “you’ll get that back,” will doing a victory dance in their heads.

As a die-hard Patriots fan, when I set out to write a post about the Manning family, I had the intention of going off about how they are the bane of my existence and have brought me great pain and suffering and how I enjoy seeing one of their own play their favorite team. Instead, I have sat here and written about their love for the Saints, the Saints love for them, and how this game is bittersweet for them. God damn it. I have no idea how this happened. This makes me hate them even more.

The Manning family has won this round but let me just say that when it comes to Sunday, I will be full heartedly cheering for the Saints, for many reasons.

1. The Saints do truly need it! They’ve never been to a Super Bowl, let alone win one.

2. Peyton and the Colts have already won a Super Bowl (reminder: Brady has won 3, which, as of now, is more than the entire Manning family combined). Stop being selfish Peyton! In order to maintain his royal status in New Orleans, Peyton should throw the game in a non-obvious way. That would perhaps make me like him more. Ehh..probably not.

3. It would be a great way to start Mardi Gras. Technically Mardi Gras doesn’t start until the week after, but I think they would make an exception and just start it Sunday if the Saints won.

4. My brother goes to school at Tulane (for all you people who don’t know where it is, it’s in NOLA) and he says the city has gone Saints CRAZY. After the Vikings game and even the police officers setting off fireworks. The Saints have become his second favorite team and well, I love my brother and it would be awesome for him to be there when the Saints won the Super Bowl. I was at school in Boston when the Red Sox won broke the curse in 2004, so I feel that the Saints winning would be only fair.

Most importantly,

5. I HATE THE MANNING FAMILY AND WANT PEYTON TO LOSE!

Superbowl Week - Thoughts on the Big Game, and Around the League

I don’t always like the week leading up to Superbowl. Everybody seems to be searching for a story angle and we tend to beat small stories to death. It reminds me of seeing someone on a hot blackjack table and everyone else clamors to get a seat.

That said, one part I really like, is that we tend to hear some other stories from around the league, because players and coaches who aren’t playing tend to be more open and less guarded with the media.

Below are a few storylines I like that could have a big effect on the title game, and a few others that made me listen.

Key stories for the Big Game

We’ve all heard the story about Dwight Freeney’s ankle ad nauseum. As someone who has watched almost every Colts snap this season, this story can’t be overstated. Freeney is a difference-maker on defense. Other teams have to gameplan for him. Protection schemes are designed to stop him. According to Football Outsiders, Freeney was 4th in the league in QB Hurries (Mathis is 8th). What I do like, however, is that the Colts aren’t trying to hide the injury. This forces the Saints to have two gameplans; one to compensate for Freeney, and one when he’s not in the game.

The key to the matchup between the Colts defense and the Saints offense are safeties Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt. The Colts will be trying to take away the Saints deep passing offense, and they do it quite well. If Bethea and Bullitt can maintain coverage over the top, then Brees will be forced to be patient with underneath throws and the running game. Also, my assessment of Bob Sanders future with the Colts will be validated.

I can’t shake the memory of Joseph Addai in his rookie season making a monstrous contribution to the Colts’ Superbowl run. He and Dominic Rhodes were the perfect complement to Indy’s passing game, adding some offensive punch when opposing defenses played too deep. This year, the unsung hero could be Donald Brown. If the Saints continually drop 7 or 8 into coverage, Manning could just audible to run after run. The Saints aren’t very formidable versus the run. You get the picture.

Last time the Colts were in the Superbowl, the question surrounding their quarterback was “Can Peyton finally win a big game?” This time around the questions seems to be “Can anyone stop Peyton Manning?” It’s amazing how far his career has come in 4 years.

Other interesting notes from around the league

John Madden had a very interesting take on injuries in the NFL (KCBS radio from SF/Oakland/San Jose). He believes that players are wearing less padding now than they did when he was coaching. Players don’t wear knee pads or elbow pads and many positions play with smaller shoulder pads. Because of the lesser padding, he believes that defenders lead with their helmet more often. For starters, I’d never thought of that causal relationship, but it makes a lot of sense. Secondly, I think that we’ve forgotten how knowledgeable Madden can be, despite the fact that he slipped so dramatically as an announcer.

On the NFL Network, there was an interview with Chris Cooley, talking about his take on having Mike Shanahan as a coach. He was obviously quite excited to have an NFL coach with exceptional experience and pedigree, but he also mentioned the effect it could have on his role in the offense. Shanahan has an incredible knack for getting the tight end the ball, especially in the red zone. Not only that, but his new offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, was the man who oversaw Owen Daniels rise to the top of the NFL TE pass-catching list this year. Chalk up Chris Cooley as a high TE pick in your fantasy draft next year.