Sunday, January 31, 2010
Chemotherapy for the Flames?
Friday, January 29, 2010
The Pro Bowl: Who Gives a Crap?
This year, there’s been more ducking out than at a Washington Wizards debt-settling session. To be honest, if I was player, I’d probably decline too.
There’s nothing in it for the players. Once they’ve been named to the squad, they are technically a “Pro Bowler” and also trigger the incentives in their contract. Why waste getting injured?
And to complicate matters further, I hear talk radio hosts blasting members of the Colts and Saints for not playing. Are you kidding me? These guys have a chance to win the Superbowl and someone out there thinks they should risk an injury the week BEFORE the big game?
I understand why the NFL put the most irrelevant all-star game on earth the week before tSuperbowl Sunday. Unfortunately they’ve missed the bigger point. No one cares about the Pro Bowl. It has nothing to do with when it’s played.
In baseball, hockey and basketball, the All-Star game is the equivalent of watching the best players in the world play a pick-up version of their pro sport. It’s entertaining, fast-paced (baseball excluded) and relatively free of injuries. For this to work for the NFL, the Pro Bowl would have to be a flag football game.
The NFL needs to scrap the Pro Bowl entirely. Just award the players with the Pro Bowl honor, like they do with an All-Pro team or Gold Glove awards. If they still want to attract a big audience, why not have a skills competition in the week leading up to the Superbowl?
I would watch a series of events each day that included the NFL’s Fastest Man or the Quarterback Challenge, the LenDale White Tequila Boat Race and even some type of defensive lineman obstacle course. I would legitimately be interested in the league’s most accurate long-snapper.
Most of all, the players would love to participate, because the risk of injury is non-existent and the bragging rights could earn them all kinds of endorsements.
Please Mr. Goodell, get rid of the Pro Bowl sham and give me a chance to root for D’Brickashaw Ferguson in the Offensive Lineman Cannonball finals.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
The Flames’ Momentum Swings Both Ways
This is the same team that started the season with a 7-2-1 record and was atop the Northwest division with a 25-12-5 record just 3 weeks ago. From hot to not, the Flames have found that the Momentum Mistress can turn on a team with a flutter of her evil eyelashes.
On paper, the team is loaded with NHL stars like Jerome Iginla, Olli Jokinen, Dion Phaneuf, Jay Bouwmeester and Miikka Kiprusoff. They have some great breakout players in Rene Bourque, Adam Pardy and Matt Giordano.
So what happened? Let’s take a look at some of the numbers.
The most obvious difference during the Flames losing streak is the significant drop in shooting percentage and save percentage. I know what you’re thinking. That seems obvious, and it is. The real question is “Why?”
The Flames are actually taking more shots per game and giving up less during their losing streak. The Flames might be taking more shots from distance and bad angles. Taking a look at the ESPN Shot Chart for Monday’s game versus the Blues doesn’t seem to indicate an issue. The Flames had at least 12 shots from the central third of the ice and inside the hashmarks.
This next table shows the likely culprit.
To be honest, I haven’t been watching closely enough to pinpoint problems on either unit, but I will be from now on, and will follow up with some insight. I’m just hoping that Coach Sutter and the rest of the team figure it out before I do.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Conference Championship Deep Outs
it looks like it might come down to the tiebreaker of total points. Good lord, please strike me down now!
Jets @ Colts:
It was a little bit of a surprise to see the Jets jump out to an early lead, but in the long run, there was no question as to who the better team was.
With 11 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the score was 17-13 in favour of the Jets, and in no one’s mind (at least mine!) there was no way the Colts would lose that game. It was at that point that the Colts took the ball, marched down field, and Manning connected on three consecutive passes to Austin Collie, the third for a TD. There was no looking back after that.
As expected, Darrell Revis basically eliminated Reggie Wayne from any AFC Championship Game MVP talk, so Manning did what Manning does best. He sliced and diced the Jets #1 rated defence for 377 yards and 3 scores.
This Colts team is scary good. They have all the tools on Offense:
- An RB, while not awesome, good enough to get you that first down, or take enough attention to make play action work
- An all-star wide out that will kill you deep, and a supporting cast that does enough to get open and garners enough attention to ensure that the best pass-catching tight end in the league is being covered by a LB, or god-willing, a D-Lineman.
- A fast and strong defence that is under-rated. They can stop the run upfront; put pressure on your QB, and hawk balls. That right, Ball Hawks.
They go to the Super Bowl behind rookie coach Jim Caldwell, who might not even talk. I am still inclined to believe he just lets Peyton Manning actually coach the team.
Vikings @ Saints:
I waited 15 weeks to see this game.
Honestly, week 5 of this season, on my weekly podcast (iTunes: Ultimate Football Talk) I uttered these words during our week 6 prediction podcast: ‘All I want at this point is to see a Saints-Vikings NFC Championship game!’ I may have added something on the end of that about Chargers-Colts, too, but hey, I was one Turner – Tomlinson combo away from that happening.
Anyways, obviously, I got my game, and BOY did it live up to all expectations!
The Saints offense was as predicted, pass heavy, and relying on Pierre Thomas when need to. It was their defence that was a little bit of a surprise, as they PUNISHED Favre all game, hitting him at every opportunity. They also did what they do best. They cause fumbles, and took advantage of the ‘gunslinger’ mentality of Favre. 5 fumbles (3 lost) and 2 picks later the saints were able to pull off somewhat of an upset. Let’s face it, everyone and their dog wanted to see Manning-Favre.
What the Vikings gave for turnovers, they got back in Penalties. The Saints gave back 88 yards on 9 penalties.
So where does the blame for this loss lie?
A. Peterson: He put the ball on the ground 3 times, although only losing 1. Add to the fact that he scored 3 TDs, and worked his sack off to recover one of his own fumbles, and I cannot point the finger at the man they call All-Day.
B. Bad Childress: Although he is one of the worst (if not THE worst) coach in the NFL, he relied on his superstars to win the game. I cannot point the finger at the man they call Major Dad.
C. Jared Allen: Although it was not his best game as a Viking, he was in Drew Brees’ kitchen all day; causing havoc for the man they call The Birthmark. I cannot point the finger at the man they call The Mullet.
D. Brett Favre: Wow, gutsy! Nice image seeing Favre limp back onto the field after getting rolled up on. He proceeded to go 5-9 for 80 yards, but more importantly, threw an UGLY pick with just 7 seconds left in the game while the Vikings were in FG range, albeit a LONG(well) field goal. He never saw the ball again, and it is quite possible that his last throw as a pro was similar to Kurt Warner’s: an UGLY interception. Sayonara Brent. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out! Call me a Favre hater (more of a Vikings hater), but HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
PS – Joe Buck is the worst commentator ever! That is not totally true...Jim Nance + Phil Simms is worse, and whaddya know, I have to listen to these two weenies for the Super Bowl.
So it’s set: Colts Vs. Saints in Superbowl XXIV. I am excited to see this game! My Early prediction is the Colts will win on a final 2 minute drive, Manning to Clark TD making the final Colts 31, Saints 28.
These two teams deserve to be there, and it WILL be a good one!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
The Dignity Bowl – NFL Conference Championships
Sure, both Tonight Show hosts have infinitely more hair than chrome-domers like Marty and I, but Sports Opinionated has the football predictive skills of Kim, Maria, and Norma. We’ve been trying to sign Triumph, but he’s holding out for more things to poop on.
As you probably read in Deep Outs this week, the writers went 7-5 last weekend and are now 11-13 overall. We’re not exactly proud of that number, but luckily the women who raised us went 5-7 last weekend and stand at 7-17 overall.
This weekend offers more thrills, spills and hopefully two correct picks for me, I need it.
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New York Jets @ Indianapolis -7.5
Ryan’s Perspective
This game has a ton of subplots and psychological factors that could impact the outcome. The Colts might really regret sitting their starters in week 16 if the Jets improbably knock them out the playoffs. This would be after also ruining their perfect season on questionable terms.
On the other hand, the Colts should be motivated to prove they can beat the Jets without a problem, rendering the undefeated debate meaningless.
I’ve spent all week pouring over this game. I had convinced myself that the Colts would win, but the Jets would keep it close. Then a few small pieces of information came together to convince me that the Jets could fall apart faster than Mark McGwire’s reputation.
1. The Bengals & Chargers missed 5 straight FGs against the Jets. That’s pure luck. It won’t continue.
2. Peyton Manning spreads the ball around better than any QB in the league. This limits the impact of the immortal Darelle Revis.
3. The Colts completely shut down the Ravens offense, which is very similar in design to the Jets defense.
4. The Ravens offense is WAY better than the Jets offense.
5. The Colts defence is 10 times scarier when they have a lead.
I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 7.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Colts could have finished off the Jets weeks ago. That was the game Jim Caldwell took out the starters both on offence and defense. The Jets came back to win the game and destroy any hopes that the Colts had for having an undefeated season. That game helped the Jets squeak into the playoffs and left Caldwell being second-guessed by the media, fans and even some members of his own team.
This is where we find out if Jim Caldwell was right.
The goal of every team at the start of the season is to play for a chance at winning the Super Bowl. This weekend the Colts will take another step towards Miami. I have said in the past that the New York Jets seem like a good playoff team. Solid defense, good special teams, a great running attack and a great offensive line. All that being said, they have the tough task of playing the most cerebral quarterback in the NFL. I look to the Jets offence stuttering while facing a more versatile and complex defense (compared to previous Colts defenses) despite missing their 2 best defensive backs (Sanders & Jackson).I’ll take Peyton and the Colts and give the 7 & ½ points.
Marty’s Perspective
Man o Man, this one is hard. Straight up, it’s a no brainer. I think the Colts win, and go on to fulfil their destiny as Super Bowl losers. But when you add 7.5 points into the mix, it makes it a whole 'nother ball game.
I look at what the Jets did last week, and compare the matchups. The Chargers have a tough time running the ball, and are a one dimensional offence. Wow, so are the Colts. Actually, the Colts are the only team in the NFL WORSE at rushing the ball than the Chargers were. On defence, the Chargers were good against the pass, but had trouble stopping the run. The Colts? Strong against the pass as well and here is the one difference....They are good against the run, too. Hmmmmm.....
Last week, the Chargers managed to stop the run for the first half, but the Jets just kept on running the ball....and eventually, it was what took the Jets to Indy.
Another difference: Even with the Jets strong defence, Manning has proven in the past he can dissect a defence like a surgeon. I mean, there is a reason why he is the best player in football today. (Damn, that hurt to say!)
For those reasons, this game is a TOUGHIE!
I told my mom last night I was taking the Jets, but I have changed my pick. I have to. I think the Colts win, and win big. I think Manning puts up 2 early scores, and the Jets are just not built to come back when trailing.
My Pick: Colts -7.5
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The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – The Jets. I picked them based on which team had warmer jersey colors.
Maria - Colts! Obviously. I am not interested in the Jets. I don’t know their players and I know a lot of Colts players. I have no time to discuss the (many) reasons why I am picking the Colts. No time.
Norma - I've kinda liked them all the way along. Manning is a pretty good QB, he has some good WRs. I don't think the Jets won last week, I think the Chargers lost.
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Minnesota @ New Orleans -3.5
Ryan’s Perspective
I know a lot of people are jumping on the Vikings bandwagon after last weekend’s annihilation of the Cowboys. I just can’t do it.
For starters, Sean Payton could outcoach Brad Childress even if he was only allowed 10 men on the field. I’ve rarely seen an offense so adept at exploiting the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
The Saints offense is the 5th most efficient passing and the most efficient running attack in the league. They can adapt to what the defense does poorly. In the Vikings case, their secondary can’t cover. The Saints could blow the top off the Superdome with an aerial display.
For those of you thinking the Vikings offense could do the same to New Orleans defense, think again. The team at Football Outsiders says their game charting shows Jabari Greer as the 2nd best cornerback in the league behind Revis. Greer will definitely be draped over Sidney Rice all game. The Saints also had the 9th best pass defense in the league according to DVOA.
The Saints run defence is definitely susceptible up the middle, but if the Vikings fall behind by more than 7 points, it won’t matter much.
Finally, if you haven’t heard the song Prince wrote for the Vikings, check it out here. The audio player is on the right.
That is the most uninspiring piece of audio garbage I’ve heard in a while. As my wife said when I played it for her, “that’s humiliating”. And she LOVES Prince. This can't be a good karmic sign for the Vikings.
All signs point against the Vikings making it to another big dance. I’ll take the Saints despite giving up 3.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Vikings may (or may not) have ran up the score versus a peaking Cowboys team. I do love how Keith Brooking got mad at the Vikings for throwing that late touchdown, despite the Cowboys calling several time outs to preserve the clock. If you don’t want a team to play their hardest against you Keith, you should stop trying yourselves as well.
The Saints dominated the potent Cardinals and helped put to bed any concerns regarding their defense. Drew Brees and especially Mr. Kim Kardashian looked good in making the Cardinals look like terrible.
No doubt, this could be the game of the playoffs. Well, if it wasn’t for the Packers-Cardinals round 1 game.
The Vikings defense relies on getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run. Any team that can block Allen and co. will have a much easier time beating the Vikings. This is what the game will come down to: the Saints O-line vs. the Vikings D-line. The Saints don’t rely on the running game and as such the run-stopping Williams duo won’t factor into the game much.
I just can’t see the Saints O-line blocking effectively versus the terror that is Jared Allen and I think Favre and Co. will be even better this week.
Don’t you think Favre would have been a good fit for the city known as the Big Easy?
I’ll take the Vikings and the 3 & ½ points.
Marty’s Perspective
This one is a no brainer for me.
I find these two teams very equal. They both have great offenses, although the edge would go to the Saints just on the fact that, well, I like that offense more.
The Vikings have a D-Line that could stop a Mack truck in its place. The Saints have a D-backfield that will give up yards, but will also cause turnovers, and are known to just plain Hawk the ball...that right, they are ball hawks.
I consider special teams to be equal. Harvin and Bush are both equally dangerous.
Where the differences come in this game are in Coaching and Home Field Advantage, which both favour the Saints.
I would rather have a garden gnome coaching my team than Brad Childress. Sean Peyton has proven to be a mad scientist with his offense, and will have new formations and plays up his sleeve to give the Vikings fits. And when they connect on these plays, the top might just pop of the Superdome like it’s a bottle of diet Pepsi, and a Mentos breath mint was just dropped in. Not only do the Saints win, but they win big, and the loss is placed squarely on the shoulders of one Brett Favre. 31-14 Saints, 3 picks by Favre.
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The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – The Vikings. I picked them based on which team had warmer jersey colors.
Maria - I’ll pick the Saints because the Vikings got whipped last weekend, they lost last weekend. No wait, not the saints...uh I don't know. I am being pressured to pick the Vikings. What was the vikings vs saints game last weekend? What was the final score? I better look into this. Wait the Saints and Vikings both won last week...I then...obviously, will be pick the Vikings although the Saints have not lost at home.
Norma - I have to go with Favre. I believe he has come this far, he will go to the Superbowl. I sure hope his team is there to back him up.
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Final Words
Here is a summary of our picks
Hopefully the games this weekend will be more entertaining than Chad Ochocinco’s bus trip. I’m still disappointed I didn’t get picked for the ride.
Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Serie A – Not So Lonely At the Top
Unfortunately, in the last few years the Serie A has been a blowout. Inter has run away with the Scudetto and frankly the only competitions that mattered were for second to fourth place and the relegation battles.
This season, however, is shaping up a little differently. Inter looked to be running away with it again, but have stumbled lately. Milan is 6 points back with a game in hand. Only 5 points separates 3rd place Roma from 8th place Fiorentina. This year could provide a sprint to the finish that we haven’t seen in a while.
And with the race this tight, the weekend will provide two titanic matchups; Inter vs Milan and Roma vs Juventus.
Here are my thoughts on the two matches:
Milan-Inter
Last time around, Inter embarrassed a Milan team that was still adapting to life under Leonardo.
This time around, Milan are hotter than a Silvio Berlusconi mistress. Inter, on the other hand have looked shaky in their wins and have given points away to Atalanta and Bari in the last few weeks.
Milan’s keys to victory:
Marco Borriello needs to continue making the most of his chances. He has worked wonders with the service he has been given lately and he’ll need another timely strike or two to help Milan offensively. He isn’t much of a threat with the ball at his feet, but has been able to steer some danger towards the opposition goal with his head and a knack for volleying at just the right time.
Thiago Silva will also need to elevate his game. His speed and agility will be put to the test against Diego Milito and Goran Pandev, especially with Alessandro Nesta injured. If Silva can’t keep the box clear, it will be a long day for Milan.
Inter’s keys to victory:
This squad badly needs Douglas Maicon to find his form again. If he can surge forward in attack, he’ll force Ronaldinho to cover defensively and steal his focus from guiding the Milan attack. Maicon is also fully capable of negating Ronaldinho on the defensive end with a physical style of defense.
Inter may have found the Serie A signing of the summer in Wesley Sneijder. He has been the play-maker they hoped for and a huge threat on free kicks. If Milan allow Sneijder time on the ball or space to operate, Inter will score several.
Roma-Juventus
Another story of two clubs currently going in opposite directions. Juventus and Roma met at the start of the Serie A season. The first matchup was a clear win for Juventus and appeared to mark Diego’s arrival as the next Serie A superstar.
Now, Juventus are in crisis, which seemed so unlikely after destroying Inter just a few weeks ago. Roma, on the other hand are surging up the table on a hot streak.
Juventus’ keys to victory:
The Old Lady signed Diego this offseason for a very specific reason. They needed someone to create chances for their offense and a strong stable of strikers. For Juventus to return to form, Diego needs to play grittier, refuse to be denied the ball and make defenders pay for marking him too close. He is a magician with the ball at his feet but needs to find his confidence again. Both Mexes and Juan are capable of being beaten on the break, Diego needs to exploit that.
Another disappointing player this season has been Amauri. He has looked lost out there for most of the season, despite being Juve’s best player last campaign. Amauri needs to stop worrying about whether he’s Brazilian or Italian and just perform on the pitch. If he doesn’t, he won’t be playing for either national team.
Roma’s keys to victory:
Luca Toni has looked fantastic so far in a few games with Roma. He provides a target up front and frees Francesco Totti to play in the hole, and Mirko Vucinic to terrorize the wing or drop off to link with midfield. If Toni can continue to provide the dangerous presence up front, it will provide much more space for his side’s creative players.
Danielle De Rossi is one of the premier tacklers in all of Serie A. His job on Sunday will be to disrupt Juve’s buildup through midfield and make life miserable for Diego. If he can frustrate the small Brazilian and make him work for touch of the ball, then Roma have a great chance to keep the Bianconeri’s offense stagnant.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Questionable NFL Coaching Movement
Does Norv have pictures of Dean Spanos wife?
For starters, the San Diego Chargers handed Norv Turner a 3 year contract extension. Go ahead, read that sentence again, I had to. Norv inhereted what most of us thought was the most talented team in the NFL and has a 32-16 record while going 3-3 in the playoffs. That's quite good on the surface, but as most of us know, Norv continually finds ways to blow close games. He may not tighten up like Marty Schottenheimer did, but he's far from a guy I'd be handing an extra 3 years.
His teams seem to self destruct in big moments and he frequently mishandles the clock and key decisions at the end of games.
The timing of the extension was also curious to me. How do you hand your coach another 3 years of confidence less than 24 hours after a playoff loss in which his team was heavily favored?
Is McDaniels the "Lumberg" of the NFL?
The second big piece of coaching news this week is the saga surrounding Mike Nolan. For those that haven't heard, Josh McDaniels and Mike Nolan had some sort of disagreement, and have decided to part ways. I have no idea what to make of this one. Do people just hate being around McDaniels at this point?
For starters, Nolan took the Broncos defense from 31st in DVOA last season to 7th in the league during the 2009 campaign. The defense was the real strong point of the Denver season and helped them lock in big wins like the one early in the season against New England. I'm not sure what happened, but Nolan has quickly latched on as the defensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins.
So now McDaniels has traded a franchise quarterback (and I use that term loosely) after alienating him, lost his star defensive coordinator and is still pushing out two productive members of the offense in Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler.
I roasted McDaniels for the Cutler situation, and frankly I think he was smarter than I after seeing how Cutler played in Chicago. And let's be honest, Brandon Marshall is a whiny b*tch a lot of the time. So where does Mike Nolan fit in? I look forward to hearing any juicy news that leaks about this one.
Who was next on the list, Lane Kiffin?
So...apparently no big-name candidates are interested in the Buffalo Bills job. And also, no small-name candidates are interested either. Does this resume sound like something that should excite the Bills fan base?
1984-2001 Various NFL positions, 2 as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys
2002-2007 Head Coach of Georgia Tech, amassing a 37-27 record. Fired in 2007
2008-2009 Offensive Coordinator of the KC Chiefs and demoted after 3 pre-season games in 2009
2010 - THE NEW BUFFALO BILLS HEAD COACH!
In the last 8 years, Chan Gailey has guided GT to a mediocre 5-year record and has been demoted from the offensive coordinator role on a terrible NFL team. This isn't exactly a great first hire for new GM Buddy Nix. I would like to apologize to all Bills fans in advance for the pain you're about to go through in 2010. It's not going to be pretty.
Let us know what you think of a few of the moves and if there are any of missed.
UPDATE JAN 20 - It appears that McDaniels may have forced Nolan out of Denver by telling him that he wouldn't be allowed to blitz as much next season. Nolan didn't like McDaniels dictating the defensive philosophy to him and left. There's also quite a few conspiracy theories floating around that McDaniels didn't like a former NFL head coach (Nolan) on his staff in case Pat Bowlen decided to part ways with him mid-season.
Also, our good friend Sarah over at RWWF had a great take on the Chan Gailey hire. Check it out here.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Division Round Deep Outs - Dignity Bowl Update!

Saturday, January 16, 2010
Dignity Bowl: Our NFL picks for the Division Round Playoff Games
Personally, I felt a little like Alan Garner (Zach Galifinakis’ character) on The Hangover, lost and throwing out comments that had no relevance whatsoever. In honor of my man Alan, I’ll be relating each of my picks this week to one of his lines from the movie.
On another note, Marty is currently losing to his mom. I’m sure he’d like us to gloss over that point, but I can’t mention it enough. MARTY IS LOSING TO HIS MOM. Never mind that that I’m also losing to Norma, let’s just focus on the fact that I’m beating my own mother…yeah, that’s better.
Arizona @ New Orleans -7
Ryan’s Perspective
“You probably get this a lot. This isn’t the real Caesar’s Palace is it?”
The real question for this game is, have we seen the real Saints the last few weeks. Through the first 11 games of the season, the Saints were the most unstoppable force in the NFL. Over the final 5 games, teams kept it close by running the ball and limiting big plays to the Saints passing game. Last week, it didn’t look like the Cardinals specialized in limiting big passing plays.
The Saints have the best offense of any team in the playoffs. The have the most efficient (#1 in DVOA) running offense in the NFL, and the 5th best passing attack. It’s hard to take something away from them. They also have a decent pass defense that creates turn-overs.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, were a middle of the pack team until last week when Kurt Warner put up one of the best quarterback performances in NFL history. The chances of him repeating that performance aren’t great.
I’ll take the Saints despite giving up 7 points.
Pete’s Perspective
Can you believe Kurt Warner threw more touchdown passes (5) versus the Packer defense (and Charles Woodson) than he threw incomplete (4)? Crazy. The Cardinals are coming into New Orleans on a high note while New Orleans is limping into their playoff match with a 3 game losing streak. After having an up and down year and experiencing some injuries, New Orleans’ blitzing defense should now have had adequate time to prepare. You have to worry about the Cardinals having spent all their emotions in last week’s memorable wild card game.
All this being said, I would treat this match up more as a toss up as New Orleans has been rather cold during the latter half of the season and the Cardinals seem to be going on a hot streak and I’ve witnessed this last year when they went to the Super Bowl.
This spread is too great to pass up.
I will take the Cardinals and the 7 points.
Marty’s Perspective
By far the hardest game of the week to pick. I love the Saints at home, coming off the bye. I still think Drew Brees is the best QB in football, and thier set of WRs is unstoppable. But hate the fact that they played like a bunch of blind midgets for the 3 weeks prior to the bye is weighing heavily in my head. When it comes to playoff coaches, I have to take the Whiz over Sean Payton. The final deciding factor for me was the fact that I made a statement last week that has stuck in my head: 'Never bet against Kurt Warner in the playoffs'. I think I have to follow those sentiments.
THE PICK: Cards +7
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take the Cardinals because they’re an animal.
Maria - I pick the Cardinals over the Saints (Just a feeling they could be the upset)
Norma - NO has been running on a winning bubble, and they wear black...black is not good. I'll take the Cardinals. How many points can they lose by?
Baltimore @ Indianapolis -6.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“Hey guys, when’s the next Haley’s comet?”
Alan didn’t want to miss Haley’s comet because it rarely comes around. You know what else rarely happens? Winning a playoff game on the road when your quarterback throws for only 34 yards. Trust me, unless Flacco steps it up, repeating last week’s success will be very difficult for the Ravens.
Statistically, the Ravens defense (5th in DVOA) matches up well with Indy’s offense (9th) and their rushing offense (4th) should gain a lot of ground against a weak Colts rushing defense (20th). I just can’t see Flacco having the time to throw with Freeney and Mathis healthy, especially given his mysterious injury status. Whether it’s his hip, quad or knee, it all limits his mobility. The Colts will stack the line and hope the Ravens try to pass. They’ve shown it in past playoff games against KC and Denver. Once the Colts take a lead, the Ravens are in big trouble.
And the Colts, have the 4th Quarter Assassin, Peyton Manning himself. You can't measure that with stats.
The Colts will win this game, it’s just a matter of the spread. I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 6.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Ravens are peaking at the right time. Their running game was virtually unstoppable last week and their defense is finally coming to form after a mediocre season. The Colts were led by (my) MVP Peyton Manning and despite lack of a running game and a below average defense, almost ran the table until their (rookie) head coach decided to kill all their momentum and bench his starters. Ravens are hot, the Colts are not. These teams met earlier in week 11 where the Colts beat the Ravens by 2. Week 11, the Ravens defense wasn’t playing well and Ray Rice wasn’t as dominating. Those facts have since changed. Jim Caldwell single-handedly killed any momentum the Colts had and the Ravens are playing their best ball of the season.
Although I think Peyton and the Colts can win this game, I believe it will be closer than the spread.
I’ll take the Ravens and the 6.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
This is the easiest pick of the weekend for me (which probably means I will lose it), but the Ravens are coming off a big win, meaning they are getting more respect than they should. The Colts have just had a bye, and have proven that when they have their entire team on the field they are just a better team.
WHAT SCARES ME: Last time these teams played, the Ravens kicked 6FGs, and hit 5. That means they were NOT capitalizing on their redzone opportunities. If they can do that this time, it's going to be Baltimore's game.
THE PICK: Colts -6.5
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take Baltimore because I know you like the Colts.
Maria - I pick the Colts over the Ravens (You know why - that's right --Ryan's favourite team and Payton Manning)
Norma: This is a given. Colts. Cause I like horses better than birds. Especially black birds.
Marty: 'Its not about Manning, Flacco, or Rice?'
Norma: 'Who are they? Does Rice run? '
Marty: 'Yes, Rice runs.'
Norma: 'So he is a reciever?'
Dallas @ Minnesota – 2.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“It’s not illegal, it’s frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane.”
Alan was talking about counting cards. I’m talking about having Adrian Peterson on your roster and having the 23rd most efficient rushing attack in the NFL. The Vikings are in love with Brett Favre, just like every TV announcer. That man-crush is going to cost them a playoff game, if they keep ignoring one of the best offensive players in the NFL.
The Vikings have to face the most dangerous team in the NFL right now, and they’ve spent all season forgetting about their best weapon. Favre has given the Vikes another facet to the offense, and their passing game (4th) has been great, but they’ve forgotten how to run the ball. Against Dallas’ pass-rushing trio of DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff, the Vikings are going to get Favre killed.
The Cowboys offense, however, shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball through the air, as their 3rd most efficient passing offense faces a Vikings defense ranked 22nd.
This will be a close game, but I’ll take the Cowboys and the 2.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
For the past 6 years I’ve looked at the Cowboys and thought that if they could ever get hot in the playoff (and survive their tough division) they would be a force. Is the year they play up to their expectations and potential? Their offense has been good all year and their defense is now playing as well as they should with their big lineman able to pressure the quarterback and stuff the run equally effective. Since their victory in New Orleans, they seem to be playing with more confidence, especially on defense.
The Vikings pass defense is lacking and will have a tough time keeping up with Austin, Williams and Witten. The cocaine-fuelled, mullet-haired freak-a-zoid that is Jared Allen will have to have a big game to get Romo to throw some hurried passes and make some mistakes.
I will look for Allen to single-handedly make people question Romo’s ability in the playoffs (once again…) and with a rested Favre and Peterson able to control possession. This game could go down to the wire and I still have images of Favre’s TD pass to Greg Lewis to win the game vs. the 49er’s. I just can’t bet against that image (at least not this week).
I’ll take the Vikings and give the 2.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
Once again, another coin flip, but there were 3 things that pointed me to my eventual pick:
1) The location: Being at the HHH Metrodome is a large advantage to the Vikes
2) The Bye: Having that week off is under-estimated
3) The Win: The cowboys were celebrating their first playoff victory since 1996 like it was the Superbowl. It's now time for a slight letdown as they will slide back into Wade Phillips Playoff Football.
THE PICK: Vikings -2.5
Sidenote: Based on the 4 coaches left in the NFC (Phillips, Peyton, Childress, Whizenhunt), you have to like the Cardinals chances of getting back to the Super Bowl.
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – like I said last week, I hate Dallas. I’ll take the Vikings.
Maria - I pick the Viking over the Cowboys (They haven't lost a game at home & they are Garry's favourite team)
Norma - It's going to be a really good game, because they both have good offensive lines, and I love Favre. He is an excellent QB, but the cowboys will tie him down, so I am taking the Cowboys. This one is really a tossup.
New York Jets @ San Diego – 7.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“Okay, well maybe we should tell that to Rain Man, because he practically bankrupted a casino, and he was a ri-tard.”
Alan was sure he could count cards and break a casino, despite the odds being stacked against him. The Jets are in a similar predicament.
The NFL history books say you don’t make a run to the Superbowl with a rookie quarterback. The Jets believe their defense (#1 in DVOA) and running game (11th), can overcome their poor passing game (28th).
The Chargers are the Bizarro Jets. They have the best passing offense in the league by a huge margin and are miserable in every other facet of the game. That juggernaut aerial attack has put them on an 11 game win streak though.
“Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Darrelle Revis” Warren Sapp on the Dan Patrick show.
Sapp had it right, Revis is simply the best cover corner in the game. He can eliminate any receiver. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Chargers spread the ball around really well, without depending on one marquee player. Also, San Diego’s offensive line had the 5th best sack rate in the NFL, meaning Rivers will have plenty of time to find a target.
Once the Chargers get ahead, they’ll force The Sanchize to throw a crippling pick-six or two. I’ll take the Chargers despite giving up 7.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Chargers are the hottest team in football, so I am told. They were undefeated in their last eleven games. They have a great quarterback who spreads the ball and throws an accurate deep ball. Their defense makes plays when it needs to. With that being said, I am still puzzled why I am being forced to believe that they are the best football team in the league whenever I read popular sports media or listen to the experts on the radio. Yes, winning eleven games in a row is a great accomplishment however their schedule was terribly easy during that time, beating teams like the Oakland, Kansas City (twice) and Washington. I seem like I am the only football fan that is not sold on the Chargers just yet. I can't stop thinking that their passing attack (focused on 2 players: Jackson and Gates) and that 11 game run has people fooled.
The Jets, on the other hand, are built like a playoff team, with one exception. Their defense ranked number one and is the best versus the pass. Their running game is the most productive in the league and allows them to control possession. The exception being their rookie quarterback. As many people can't bet on a rookie quarterback in the playoffs, I can if he plays behind the best offensive line in the league, plays with the best rushing attack and has the top ranked defense. Sanchez hasn't been the problem on offense so far anyway. It's been stone-hands Edwards. If Braylon's hands did half as much as he's mouth does he wouldn't be among the leaders in drops. He's drops this year have been so terrible; they made Randy Moss's drops look like Moss was trying to catch those balls vs. Carolina. Sanchez will have to figure out that he is better off aiming to get the ball stuck in Edwards' facemask than hitting him in the numbers.
I'll take the J---E---T---S, JETS, JETS, JETS, JETS and the 7.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
Bah! A 2nd week of a rookie QB going on the road (this time across the country) to face a good team in the playoffs. It's against a team that has won 11 in a row, that has one of the hottest QBs in football. BUT! The Jets strength is with the run (1st in the NFL during regular season), and the Chargers are susceptible (20th in the NFL in rushing defence). The Jets are good AGAINST the pass (2nd), and give up the run (8th). The chargers are a passing team (5th), and can't run the ball worth a S##T (31st)! I think the Chargers pull it out, but it will be much closer than the 7.5 points.
THE PICK: JETS +7.5
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take the Jets because it reminds me of the Jetsons!
Maria - I pick the Chargers over the Jets (I like their uniforms and they have a pretty good offence. OK maybe this will be just a guess.)
Norma - I like Sanchez…he is an excellent rookie QB. I have never seen a chargers game, but I have to go with the Chargers because everyone else is going with the Chargers.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Final Words
Here is a summary of our picks
Have a beer, have some nachos, enjoy the games, and in the immortal words of Alan Garner….
“Hey, you guys ready to let the dogs out?”
Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
Friday, January 15, 2010
A Seahawks Leap of Faith...
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The Premier League Is Getting Sucked Dry
It’s no secret that clubs are being bought up by foreign ownership who view them as a revenue source, not always as a sporting club. This evolution is exactly the same in other major sports leagues. What is being done drastically different than in North America, however, is the lack of fiscal policy in place to ensure the financial health of these clubs.
Portsmouth made close to £99m on recent transfers and yet cannot afford to pay their player’s wages. Manchester City reported a loss of £148m in 2009. Liverpool is sitting on over £300m in debt since their takeover by American owners.
The worst example, however, is Manchester United. Since the Red Devils takeover by the Glazer family (who own the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), the club has taken on record debt.
The Glazers bought Man U for a total of £810m, but only £270m was their own money and the rest was borrowed. They saddled the club with the extra £540m in debt. Since that time, they have been liable for almost £325m in debt payments, some of which were unpaid and have been tacked onto the club’s debt load.
The club currently owes over £700m and pays close to £67m a year in interest.
What has this meant for the average Man U fan? They’ve got the privilege of buying tickets that have doubled in price.
Man U made a profit last year of £26m, but only because they sold Cristiano Ronaldo for a record fee of £81m. Selling your best asset is not exactly good long term business.
It’s easy to see that the Premier League has a problem, but it’s not quite as easy to figure out a solution. I really see two ways out, and neither one is likely to be welcome.
The first thing most EPL clubs (and those from other leagues as well) need to do, is stop out-spending their revenue. This may seem simple, but in a constant “arms race” to be the best, clubs are spending ridiculous sums of cash for marginal players. While a club like Liverpool has the money to absorb a few mistakes, smaller clubs clearly cannot.
Clubs need to harvest talent from their youth programs or follow the path of Arsene Wenger and buy talented youngsters, rather than stars in their primes.
More importantly, the Premier League should set financial standards in order to maintain league status. UEFA already uses this type of system to ensure Champions League participants are not financially delinquent. The EPL could require some type of debt-to-revenue ratio in order to be considered an active member of the league. This would ensure that clubs are not over-leveraged and squeezed for cash, while still allowing the bigger clubs to spend their giant revenue.
I would argue even further for a salary cap or a transfer fee cap, but I know those ideas are too revolutionary for European soccer at this point in time.
The league needs to wise up and realize what the fans of many clubs already have, that massive increasing debt and crippling salaries will ruin the teams they once loved.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Wildcard Weekend Deep Outs
Ryan has a 1 game lead over Kim
Marty is trailing Norma by a single game.
INITIAL REACTION? Yesssssssssssssssssssssssss!
INITIAL REACTION? ...Interesting....
INITIAL REACTION? What? No! Really? Huh? C’mon!













