NFL Preview Part 1

We've hit the beginning of August and it's time to start thinking about the upcoming NFL season. Training camps are in session, pre-season starts in a week and the regular season starts in just over a month. Over the next couple weeks, I'm going to outline my thoughts and predictions on the upcoming season with a 4-part NFL preview.



I love the NFL. Every Sunday at my house is set aside for pre-game shows, last minute fantasy lineup adjustments, smack talk through text messages and using the art of the remote control to watch at 3 games at once.



I'm also a big believer in stats, and I don't mean the kind that TO uses to ask for a fat contract. I mean stats that actually tell you something. I'm a big believer in the team at Football Outsiders and would encourage you to check out their Almanac and website. When I talk about a team's strength of schedule, I'm using the prediciton from FO and that goes for offensive rankings, etc. DVOA is a much better indicator than total yards, so let's get rid of those redundant indicators.



NFL Preview Part 1 - Teams That Got Worse



While every year, some team jumps from being under-achieving, bottom of their division or relative obscurity to the Cinderella story, teams also go the other way. In the first part of our NFL preview, I want to talk about the 3 teams I think will suffer a significant setback or kick off a dramatic decline. This doesn't mean they will be terrible (well, one will) but that they will slide from the performance we've come to expect.



Denver Broncos - colossal collapse



WOW. I cannot remember a football team neglecting their weaknesses and ruining their strengths worse than the Broncos this offseason. When I watched their games last year or had to play against someone in my pool who had Brandon Marshall or Jay Cutler, I cringed. The combination of Cutler, Marshall and Eddie Royal looked set to dominate the passing game in the NFL for the next 5-7 years. They looked unstoppable. Combine that with Shanahan's ability to unearth a running game from nothing and it seemed like we were witnessing the next great offensive dynasty.



Sure, their defence was pitiful. Ok, beyond pitiful. The second worst DVOA for a single season since the stat has been kept. That's disgusting. But as the Rams and Colts have proven in the past, you can dominate the regular season and make a run in the play-offs with a juggernaut offense and an average defense. So the mission in Denver should have been to build an average defense. I repeat, just build an average defense. Doesn't seem too hard.



So owner Pat Bowlen decides that he needs to fire Shanahan. Not a smart move in my books, but at least defensible given the poor finishes and inability to address the defense. He must be hiring a defensive genius then right? Nope, he gets Josh McDaniels, who had been running the Pats offense for the last 3 years. Again, this is defensible, but not what I would have done. At least McDaniels had a great track record with quarterbacks.



Now comes the the disgusting part. How can you try to trade Cutler straight up for Cassell? The reported trade was to give Cutler to Tampa, who sends a 1st rounder to the Pats, who give Cassell to the Broncos. Why was this even considered? Didn't someone in the front office say "hey, shouldn't we be trying to get someone on defense without a matador's cape?" So after all the drama, Cutler ends up going to the Bears and the Broncos now have Kyle Orton. No wonder this website was created.



By the way, I'd just like to rub salt in the wound by mentioning that the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 points out that the 4 closest comparisons to Jay Cutler using the first 2 season of his stats are Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.



To top it off, the Broncos have the hardest projected schedule in the league this season. I'm thinking a 3-13 season along with several McDaniels effigies is in order.



Baltimore Ravens - It has to come sooner or later



This one hurts. I love watching Ravens games. Great defenses get me fired up. If they play any kind of above-average team, I will watch them every Sunday. LeRon McLain helped me win my fantasy pool last year. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will stick out as 2 of my favorite defensive players of all time.



The Ravens looked like they might have found an offense to go with their unbelievable defense last year. Unfortunately, their offense was much like my preferred style in Madden. They run as often as possible on 1st and 2nd down and then pass only on third down. They throw the odd bomb to keep their opponents from crowding the box, but mostly, it's pretty predictable. It worked for them last year, but defensive coordinators have a habit of catching up with predictable offenses. On top of the predictability, they have an aging receiving core that relies on Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, and haven't added anyone who can help. I love that they drafted Michael Oher, even if it's just because The Blind Side was such a great book, but he's not going to change the offense into a multi-dimensional scoring machine.



The Ravens defense is a stone killer, but they can't get much better than last year. In 2008 they scored 6 TDs and finished 2nd in the league for defensive DVOA and best in the red zone. Unfortunately, they won't improve by losing Bart Scott and super-coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets. They'll still be good, but maybe top 5 instead of the best. By the way, does anyone else think Haloti Ngata sounds like the name of a villain on a James Bond movie?



So, when you combine an average, predictable offense with a defense that will lose a half-step and the 5th hardest predicted schedule without adding any impact players, I think a 2-3 win slide is in the cards.


New York Giants - just not the same
I know what you're saying. The Giants looked great last year, how could they possibly be worse? Well, in my experience, it's a lot easier to fall from great to decent than from middle-of-the-pack to terrible. The Giants looked great last year, but lost a few talents that they didn't replace.
For starters, Plaxico Burress is a bigger loss than people think. While I don't believe Burress is an elite WR, he does 2 things extremely well. He can go up for the deep ball and he's a big red-zone target. The threat of the deep ball is what kept teams from stacking the box against the Giants rushing attack. And obviously, performance in the red zone is the difference between a close win and a close loss. I think losing both of these talents will have a monstrous impact on the team. Even more puzzling, is how they addressed it. With Anquan Boldin on the market, the Giants didn't want to give up a 1st rounder for him, but then drafted Hakeem Nicks in the first round. I'm sure the kid is good, but Boldin is a stellar red-zone receiver and a proven commodity.
Another impact that I believe most people are overlooking is the loss of Dereck Ward. Ward topped 1000 yds rushing and chipped in 41 receptions last year. He was a great 3rd down back and the perfect complement to Brandon Jacobs. He also provided the Giants with insurance to a Jacobs injury and the ability to keep him fresh. When the Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave after winning the Superbowl, they underestimated what the workload would do to Joseph Addai. I think the situation will play out the same in New York. I don't think Jacobs can handle the workload. Ahmad Bradshaw may appear to have the talent to take over for Ward, but with a DVOA of -1.4% last year, I'm not holding my breath.

Finally, the Giants play in a VERY tough division. The Eagles, 'Skins and Cowboys all play the run well and Washington added Albert Haynesworth in the offseason. I don't predict the Giants to disappear, I just think they've slipped back towards the pack.
Next up...NFL Preview Part 2 - Teams Ready to Progress

Rants & Raves - Soccer in Summer 2009

Since we’re in the thick of soccer’s transfer season, it’s time for me to kick off a section I’ll be calling Rants & Raves.

Rants

Why does Javier Pastore have to be “the Argentine Kaka”? Can’t we just say he’s a really good playmaking midfielder who carried Huracan to a title run despite being only 20 years old? I’ve watched his highlights and he’s good, but there are many average players out there that have great highlight reels. Kaka is one of the top 5 players in the world, let’s not give this kid a crown just yet.

I really don’t understand why teams sell their best players to rivals within their own leagues. Not only do you weaken yourself, but you beef up your biggest competition. I understand that it can make sense financially, but you’ve still got to replace that player. For example, Arsenal sold Emmanuel Adebayor to Man City and now might sell Kolo Toure to them as well. I understand that Adebayor might be a bit of a headcase and they made great money selling him, but why not sell him to a Spanish or Italian team instead, just in case it comes back to haunt them. Don’t get me started on the Toure sale. So, in short, they’ve just given up their top scorer over the last 2 years and now potentially their number 1 defender – to a main rival for the Champions League. Wow.

I don’t think there has ever been a better example of why UEFA needs to impose some sort of financial restrictions on teams that want to compete in the Champions League or the Europa League (that still sounds strange). I don’t care if it’s a salary cap, a transfer fee cap, a 6+5 rule or a luxury tax. How can Real Madrid spend more money (180M pounds) so far this transfer period than some teams have spent in the last 5 years? With that kind of spending differential, the smaller clubs have no shot. While it's great if you're a Real Madrid fan, how is that fair to the fans of Real Zaragoza or Espanyol? The playing field isn't level, so why pretend it is. It's the same issue that exists in MLB. The NFL, NBA and NHL have figured it out and their leagues are more competitive.

Why hasn't anyone put up the cash for Klaas-Jan Huntelaar or Rafael Van Der Vaart from Madrid? Both of these players were considered world-class players when Los Merengues signed them. Suddenly, no one wants them despite their level of play being good enough to finish 2nd in La Liga last year. If I was a manager at a mid to top level club, I'd be drooling over those 2 like a trucker over a plate of cheese fries.

Question: Is there a team stupid enough to have paid the 3 highest transfer fees in their league so far this summer and all of them be at the same position? Absolutely. Welcome to Manchester City. They have purchased Tevez, Adebayor and Santa Cruz to add to their forward stable of Robinho, Bellamy, Benjani and Bojinov. Not sure what kind of formation they're shooting for, but I look forward to seeing Stephen Ireland and Shaun Wright-Philips playing as holding mids.

Finally, I have a rant that might not matter to most, but frustrates me to no end. Hertha Berlin narrowly missed a Champions League spot last year on the final day of the Bundesliga season. They relied on a very stout defence (2nd fewest goals allowed) and some timely goals from Andriy Voronin, Marko Pantelic and Raffael. Unfortunately, they let their best defender, Joe Simunic, sign with Hoffenheim, saw Voronin return to Liverpool and Pantelic (45 g in 114 appearances with Hertha) is still a free agent after falling out of favor with coach Lucien Favre. Without a single significant signing, I see Hertha falling hard this season.


Raves

As much as I hate to say it, Juventus has done the best job of any Champions League bound club in the transfer market this summer. I don't include Real Madrid due to the insane amount of money it took. Juve haven’t lost anyone important, but they’ve added two top-notch players in Diego and Felipe Melo. That’s how you build a team that wins the Scudetto and challenges for the Champions League. They keep the team together to ensure chemistry and teamwork but add a few outstanding pieces to put them over the top.

Let's all raise a glass and toast the departure of Emerson from the San Siro! From the day he arrived in Milan, he has been overpriced, out of shape and generally useless. I hope Santos can get more use out of him. Good luck with that!

Ranting about Sports

We all do it. Whether we're on the phone talking about a trade, having a beer while watching the game with buddies or even muttering to ourselves while watching our team blow a late game lead. We rant about sports. We're all sure that we know better than the announcers, the coach, the GM and even our star player. I've been doing it my whole life.



Why did the QB dump it off to the running back when his star wide receiver was just getting separation? Why would we put our star center with 2 grinding wingers when he clearly needs a winger with a rocket shot from the slot? Why did the manager play a traditional 4-4-2 when our team plays at it's most creative in a 4-2-3-1?



To be honest, I love being angry at my team's coach. I love thinking my team needs to sign at least one linebacker in the offseason and I love wondering why we keep signing players that are over the hill.



The greatest thing about sports is that the fans have a way to get involved, long after we've realized that we'll never play the sport ourselves. We get emotionally invested in our teams and we hang off every play.



That's why I started this blog. It gives me another way to rant and be opinionated. I hope you enjoy it and add a few rants of your own.