NFL Hangover - Week 5

I’ve always thought that Week 5 was the first point in the NFL season when we could truly say which teams are going to challenge for the Superbowl, which ones have a chance to win their division or wild card and which ones should beef up their college scouting departments as quickly as possible.

By the time Week 5 is over, we typically have a good feel for how some things will turn out and are left with some interesting questions that are yet to be answered.

Note: Any stat with (FO) was taken from Football Outsiders and any stat with (CHFF) was taken from Cold Hard Football Facts.

What we know

We know that the MVP race is lead by Peyton Manning, and no one else is close. This looked like Drew Brees’ year after the first few games, but Manning is on a historic streak right now. He leads the league is passing yards, passing TDs, passer rating, and DVOA (FO) and is 2nd in completion percentage. His team is 5-0 and he’s looked unstoppable. He drove his team for touchdown drives to finish the first half in the last two games. The time on the clock for each drive, 1:17 and 0:48. There is no discussion.

We know that the Bengals and Broncos are much better than most of us thought. Yes, especially me. I predicted the Bengals to finish 7-9 and the Broncos to crumble without Cutler. For the Bengals, their defense had the makings of a solid unit, but most of us were unsure how Carson Palmer would play and if the loss of “Housh” would be too much. Apparently Palmer is just fine and has meshed well with his new receiving corps. As for the Broncos, their defense has been Top 5 in DVOA (FO) under Mike Nolan. Their offense has been efficient under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels and the mistake-free play of Kyle Orton. We shouldn’t be surprised that McDaniels can run an offense after what he did in New England with Matt Cassel. Orton has been under-estimated by many, including myself, despite a career win-loss record of 26-12.

We know there are several teams that should be happy with a 2-14 record this year. Yes, I’m looking at you St. Louis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland and Tampa Bay. This is the biggest group of truly terrible teams I’ve ever seen in one NFL season. If any of these teams are playing, I’ll be changing the channel on Sunday from now on. Exhibit A would be the Browns-Bills clash this week. No team should ever win when they complete 2 passes on 17 attempts.

Washington might be 2-3, but they’re terrible as well. They’ve beaten the Rams by 2 and the Bucs by 3. That’s nothing to brag about when you’ve lost to Detroit and Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish 4-12, and that’s only because they still have KC and Oakland on the schedule.

We know the Dolphins are better than their 2-3 record. The Wildcat and Chad Henne have given their offense just enough variety to keep defences off balance. They rank 14th in offensive DVOA (FO). Their defense is competent enough (17th in DVOA) to stick with any team in the league. They have losses to Atlanta, Indy and San Diego, who all were playoff teams last year. They played a tight, well-fought game against the Jets last night and fully deserved the win. They may not be ready for a deep playoff run, but they’ll probably be on the field for Wild Card Weekend.

We know the Giants haven’t been affected by the loss of Plaxico Burress or Derrick Ward. I thought the loss of these two talents would knock the Giants down a peg this season. The reason they haven’t been affected is due to talented young players elevating their games. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have played outstanding so far and Ahmad Bradshaw has picked up where Ward left off. It hasn’t hurt that Eli Manning seems to have matured as well, with a QB rating over 100 and an effective yards (FO) ranking of 4th in the league.

We know that Michael Crabtree didn’t gain much from his holdout. I’ve already explained my reasons for disapproving of the Crabtree holdout. In the end, he got a 6 year contract worth ~$32M with $17M guaranteed. So his guaranteed money fits the #10 slot in the draft, but his potential earnings are closer to what Heyward-Bey got. This compromise could have been reached before training camp, since NFL teams are more worried about the guaranteed money to draft picks than anything that is earned through performance. And to top it off, he missed 5 weeks worth of salary, which probably negates a big chunk of what he gained in the holdout.

We know that most people didn’t expect Cedric Benson to be leading the NFL in rushing yards or Steve Smith (NYG) to be leading the NFL in receiving yards. I touted Benson as a sleeper fantasy pick, but thought Dominik Hixon would pick up Plaxico’s targets, not Smith. While we’re on the topic, I’d like to thank Miles Austin for making me look just a little bit smarter after this week’s performance.

We know the Colts, Giants, Vikings and Saints look like the favorites to win the Superbowl. This might be the first time in 5 or 6 years that the NFC has more Superbowl contenders than the AFC.

Questions to be answered

Can the Broncos defense continue as a Top 5 or even a Top 10 unit? To be clear, I’m not talking about yards allowed, I’m talking about scoring, DVOA (FO), Defensive Hog Index (CHFF) or any other stat that correlates to actually winning football games. I’m skeptical, but it’s only because they were so poor last year.

Will Cleveland’s roster makeover backfire? They just traded Braylon Edwards, the most proven offensive weapon they had left. I’m not saying I’d build a team around Edwards, but Mohammed Massaquoi might be just a 1 game wonder. At the moment, they’ve given the Jets their starting QB and now possibly a #1 wide receiver. Mangini better hope the players and picks he got back in those trades were worth it. For Braylon Edwards and Mark Sanchez, they’ve received Chansi Stuckey, Jason Trusnick, Alex Mack (1st rd), David Veikune (2nd rd), Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, Brett Ratliff and 2 draft picks (3rd & 5th rounders). The Browns needed a roster makeover, but I’m not thrilled with any of the players on that list.

How bad is Tennessee? They have essentially the same roster that went 13-3 last year. That said, they’re missing Haynesworth and I predicted a harsh slide this season. Not only that, but apparently Kerry Collins is off the fountain of youth and it may be time to give Vince Young his final shot as a starting quarterback. Their team efficiency rating (FO) is -28.1% which ranks them 27th in the league in a combination of offense, defense and special teams. Apparently they are worse than I thought.

Will any team finish with a winless record again this year? I think the Rams have the best chance to go 0-16. They have 4 losses of 19+ points and the only remaining games that look remotely winnable are against Detroit, Houston and Tennessee. They have the 3rd worst Team Efficiency (FO) rating in the entire NFL.

Did I deliberately copy the name “Hangover” for my column from DJ Gallo or the gentlemen from Cold Hard Football Facts? Absolutely not. To be honest, after week 1, it was the best way I could describe the combination of exhaustion and exhilaration that had followed the first Sunday of the season. At the time, I had never read either of those columns and wasn’t aware of them. I haven’t received any complaints, so I don’t plan on changing the title.

After a great Monday nighter, Thanksgiving feast and probably too many drinks this weekend, it’s no wonder I feel hung over.