NFL rookies have it tough. They have to adjust to new surroundings, new coaches, new teammates, new groupies and money! Ok, so their jobs aren’t that tough however what I’ve seen in recent years is that rookies can be an absolute fantasy football steal! They are often available in the late rounds or on the waiver wire, their performances are tough to predict due to many intangible factors and if placed in the correct situation, they can provide lots of fantasy football points. Even if your fantasy football pool is not a keeper league, as Adrian Peterson’s rookie year in Minnesota can attest, rookies should be given some thought.
For part 1 of our Rookie preview, we will look at what could be the toughest position for any NFL rookie, the Quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks have it tough. Immense playbooks to memorize, new never seen before defence schemes to adjust to, unfamiliar personnel and the adjustment of being under intense pressure and scrutiny by not only fans but also their team-mates and coaches. After seeing Matt Ryan and Joe Flacon’s rookie years, you must realize that those players had rare seasons. Most rookie quarterbacks need 2 to 3 years in the pro’s before fulfilling their true potential (Aaron Rodgers).
Matthew Stafford: His prototypical physical stature and strong arm made him a wanted man come draft day. Despite being chosen first overall and being rewarded with an unprecedented monster contract, he doesn’t seem to show all the top traits that NFL scouts look for to find an future elite NFL quarterback. Can be inaccurate, didn’t have big number in c
ollege and when facing tough defences (SEC) seemed to get confused and under performed. His footwork and inaccuracies have made some scouts cap his potential at becoming an average NFL starting quarterback however one thing I’ve learned is that scouts can be wrong (Tom Brady, Kurt Warner) and in his first season he should have some decent offensive weapons around him and throwing to one of the top wide outs in the league won’t hurt either.He will be playing behind a terrible offensive line however Matthew’s physical toughness is one of his strongest traits. In college he faced a lot of blitzing defences playing behind a terrible offensive line. He took lots of hits in the pocket and remained healthy and managed to display a great ability to focus downfield.
He likes to throw deep and will be allowed to having Megatron as his primary downfield threat. What he will learn in a hurry is the importance of checking down to his tight end (rookie Petigrew) or his backfield playmaker Kevin Smith.
Detroit will have another shaky year on defence and as such this will give Stafford a lot of opportunities to throw the ball downfield. In other words, Detroit might be the ideal place for Stafford to show his potential in that they will allow him to play to his strengths. Of all the rookie quarterbacks, he should have the better numbers this year, due to sheer number of passing attempts and being able to throw to an elite wide receiver like Calvin Johnson however we don’t expect Matthew to have a year that is worth much fantasy value due to the possibility of high interception numbers and playing on a team that, much like its new quarterback, is a work in progress.
Mark Sanchez: Another USC quarterback trying to make it in the NFL. This one has only had one full year as a starter in college and doesn’t seem to have elite college arm strength. At best his arm strength can be rated at average. What Sanchez does have is his quarterbacking intelligence, ability to read college defensive coverage’s, good footwork and a very accurate arm, especially when on the run. His physique and physical ability aren’t as impressive as Stafford’s but he seems to be the most NFL ready quarterback.
He inherits a team with a good offensive line, good running backs (Jones, Washington) and a smash mouth style offensive game plan that may suit Mark well. The Jets offence will be built around the running game and Mark is an excellent fit in that style of play. He can move well in the pocket, is good at play-action and throws well when out of the pocket. So, if the Jets defence shows the promise they did next year, what is holding Sanchez back? Probably the biggest concern is the lack of talent at wide out. Cotchery was a disappointment in 2008, Clowney is raw and unproven, which can be said for the rest of the wide outs. It’s obvious to see that tight end Dustin Keller may be Sanchez’s favourite target.
As the Jets will keep things very conservative, at best Sanchez’s numbers will be close to Joe Flacco’s 2008 numbers.
Best of the rest:
Pat White: Athletically gifted player. Shows explosive speed for a quarterback. Tall but lanky frame better suited as a wide out. Weak arm often overshadows his good accuracy. A quarterback with great athletic ability will definitely be used in the Dolphin offence, can you guess where? Wildcat. He could be a fun player to watch this year but unfortunately, if he does post good numbers, it won’t be throwing the ball and he will most likely be rated as a QB in most fantasy football leagues.
Josh Freeman: Very raw. Not NFL ready. Could be thrown in too early due to the foggy quarterback situation in Tampa Bay. Great arm strength, terrible defensive coverage reads and below average technique. Could be a candidate to lead the league in interceptions thrown if he starts. Does have some good offensive tools to target (Bryant, Winslow).
As drafting a rookie quarterback has big risk involved, those quarterbacks drafted that were not mentioned, were done so because they won’t be in situations that we allow them to take to the field. Of those that were mentioned, both Sanchez and Stafford look like the only ones to have much fantasy value this year however that being said, their value isn’t much more than as a second string QB with upside in keeper drafts. These players should not be drafted in early rounds and in many drafts, they will be available on the waiver wire.
Next up, rookie running backs.
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