Sunday, February 14, 2010
Sports-Opinionated Has Moved to a New Home
Thank you for your followership and we hope you'll continue to visit us.
Sincerely,
Ryan Popilchak
Sports-Opinionated Creator and Author
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Website Renovations!
We're hoping to unveil our new look by Saturday or Sunday.
If you have any questions, or even suggestion for things you'd like to see. Please email me at Ryan@Sports-Opinionated.com
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Superbowl Analysis & Opinions
The Saints deserved to win this game. They played aggressively, left nothing on the field and went for the win in every facet of the game. They had the bravery and confidence to try an onside kick, go for it on 4th and 1, and to jump a route on a crucial 4th quarter drive. I am genuinely happy for Drew Brees, Sean Payton, the organization and especially their fans.
I do, however, disagree with a variety of opinions that I’ve heard about on TV, the radio and several columns and blogs. Here are my views on when those people should “turn up the good” and “turn down the suck”.
Turn Down the Suck #1 – Pierre Garcon’s Drop Killed the Colts Momentum
This is only partially true. Up 10-3 and driving once again. Garcon’s drop had a stalling affect on the Colts offense. The real problem though, was the Saints offense putting together long drives before and after the Colts’ 3 and out.
The Saints had the ball for five and a half minutes to start the 2nd Quarter and after Garcon’s drop went on another six and a half minute drive. If the Colts defense holds them to a short drive, the Garcon drop isn’t nearly as crucial
The drop by Marques Colston earlier in the 1st quarter was much worse, and his offense recovered just fine. One drop isn’t a game-changer if it’s in the 1st half and doesn’t involve a touchdown.
Turn Down the Suck #2 – The Colts Used WR Screens & the Running Game to Negate the Saints Blitzing Defense
Again, this is partially true. Joseph Addai was great in this game with 13 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately the Colts went away from him in the 4th quarter, when they still had plenty of time on the clock. That said, the receiver screens that the Colts ran for Austin Collie were hideous. The blocking was non-existent at first and the last one they threw, he ran way from his own blocking.
If the Colts wanted to use the screen, they needed to hit Dallas Clark or Pierre Garcon on those plays, as they’re both more comfortable in that role than Collie.
Turn Down the Suck #3 – The Saints Going For It on 4th And Goals Was a Good Call
Sean Payton got lucky. If the Saints were in this situation in the middle of the quarter, then I would love it. Going for it on 4th and Goal with a good offense makes a lot of sense. If it’s successful, it’s a dagger to the Colts defense and if it fails, the offense is pinned and the Saints can get the ball back in great field position.
The only reason I don’t like this call, is because it was at the end of the half. If the Colts weren’t so conservative on 3rd down, the Saints never see the ball again.
Turn Down the Suck #4 – The 51 Yard FG Attempt Was a Bad Decision
Let me clarify this. The 51-yarder was definitely a bad decision with a kicker so old that he remembers when The Who were actually good. That said, the poor decision was on the play BEFORE the field goal. The Colts were facing 3rd and 11 from the Saints 33 yard line. Manning threw a pass deep down the middle to Collie, which was defended by Jonathan Vilma underneath and a safety over the top.
The Colts were up 17-16 at the time and facing the aforementioned 51-yarder if they don’t move the ball. Why try for the impossible touchdown pass? In this situation, Manning should be looking for the first down, and at the very least a 7 or 8 yard gain. Even if he doesn’t get the conversion, at least stover is faced with a 43 or 44 yarder.
To be even more technical, an article on Advanced NFL Stats explains this exact scenario much to my own egotistical vindication. They state that the Colts had a Win Probability (WP) of 0.71 (or 71%) after Manning completed the pass to Reggie Wayne on 4th and 2. When Manning’s pass to Collie fell incomplete, the Colts had a WP of 0.59. After missing the 51-yarder, it fell to 0.47.
In the span of 4 plays, the Colts had dropped their probability of winning from 71% to 47%.
Turn Down the Suck #5 – Peyton Manning Threw a Terrible Interception
The interception itself was a game-ending play, there’s no debating that fact. The interception was not a major Manning blunder though.
Four things conspired to make the interception happen, and only one or two were in Manning’s full control.
1. The Colts called a variation of a play they’d run only two plays earlier. I’m not sure if this was Tom Moore or Manning, but it was a mistake.
2. Tracey Porter recognized the play and made an AMAZING jump on the ball. Don’t just blame the offense, credit a great defensive play.
3. Reggie Wayne made a terrible cut. If he breaks inside as he’s supposed to, the pass is probably still incomplete, but it’s unlikely that Porter catches the ball and takes it to the house.
4. Manning threw a pass on an inside-breaking route, when Porter was clearly playing inside technique. This doesn’t make it a terrible throw, but it’s not an incredibly safe throw either. When he saw Porter shading inside, he could have gone to another option.
Turn Down the Suck #6 – Colts Fans Whining About Peyton Being Blocked in the Back on the INT Return
Yes, he was blocked in the back. Yes, the rule says the ball should have been spotted at the place of the foul. Yes, that interpretation would negated Tracey Porter’s TD.
Guess what? Sometimes the refs miss a call in the heat of a big play. Stop whining.
Also, if the Saints got to keep the ball, they’d just start another long, clock-eating drive. The Colts defense hadn’t stopped the Saints from scoring once in the entire 2nd half. It was actually better for the Colts that the Saints scored quickly.
Turn Up The Good #1 – The Colts Got Too Conservative
This is extremely true. Peyton Manning has been an absolute killer all year in the 2 minute drill. The Colts ran twice out of their endzone after stuffing the Saints 4th and Goal attempt. They were up 10-3, had 0:51 on the clock and were facing 3rd and 1 with 90 yards to go to the endzone.
In the regular season or against the Jets in the AFC Championship, the Colts would spread the formation and let Peyton work his magic. Suddenly, they shut down their best weapon. Peyton handed it off to Addai up the middle, and the Saints stuffed the play.
When the Saints got the ball back, they came back and kicked their second field goal to make it 10-6.
Turn Up the Good #2 – The Onside Kick Was a Great Call
Rarely do I disagree with Bill Simmons, but this is one of those times. In his podcast, he mentions that the onside kick was a bad call because if Hank Baskett had held onto the ball, the Colts were going to get great field position.
According to the great team at Football Outsiders, unexpected onside kicks have historically been recovered at a rate of 70.5%. This one was so unexpected that I almost choked on a meatball (true story).
The chances of recovery were in the Saints favor and it was a monstrous contributor to the Saints win. The Saints had 9 possessions in the game to the Colts 8, and the onside kick was just as good as getting a turnover from the Saints defense.
Turn Up the Good #3 – This Blogger Lost a Pick ‘Em Contest to His Mom.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
The Dignity Bowl – Superbowl
Every angle has been dissected, every fan is having a nervous breakdown (myself included) and the party food has been prepared.
So who’s going to win? We’ve got a variety of opinions
The Line: New Orleans @ Indianapolis -4.5
Ryan’s Perspective
The Saints have the most balanced, well-designed offense the Colts have played all year. The passing offense is better than the Patriots aerial attack that moved the ball on the Colts all game. The Saints running offense is the most efficient in the league. The Saints will move the ball, and the Colts will do their best to limit big plays with safety coverage over the top. The Saints play action is the biggest threat.
Freeney will play, he’s a gamer. If the Colts are smart, they’ll put him in only on 3rd and long in order to limit his exposure on run plays.
If the Colts gave up 17 points to the Jets, then the Saints could score 34 easily.
On the other side of the ball, I can’t believe how many analysts are talking about Gregg Williams’ defensive gameplanning like it’s the solution to every NFL offense. For starters, the Vikings scored 28 points and racked up 31 first downs despite having 5 turnovers. The turnovers were dumb, not necessarily great plays by the defense.
The Colts put up 30 points on the Jets defense, which was the best in the league, by a mile. Peyton Manning is better than Brett Favre and the Colts receivers are better than the Vikes group. The Saints will likely put Greer on Garcon and double Reggie Wayne with a corner and a safety. That leaves a lot of room for Austin Collie and Dallas Clark to operate over the middle and Manning will find them.
The Saints defence is also susceptible to the run, especially up the middle. The Colts on the other hand, are not a great running team, but their strength is up the middle. This could provide Manning with a great play-changing option at the line when the Saints are in a deep zone.
The Colts could score 40 if the offense continues to roll the way it has throughout the playoffs.
Overall, I think the Saints are easily the toughest matchup all year for the Colts because Brees and the Saints offense will force Manning to be perfect in order to keep pace. That said, Peyton is playing for a spot in history and has looked as unstoppable as any player in recent memory. Momentum matters.
I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 4.5 points. In case of a tiebreaker, my prediction for total points is 60.
Pete’s Perspective
Well, here we are. I have the Dignity Bowl all wrapped up. I knew I would be in this position when we started. I knew I would easily handle my end of the bargain while the other SO contributors would struggle to keep up with their mothers. Yes, their own mothers!
While I will be cheering on my pick in the Super Bowl, I will be cheering even more loudly for Marty and Ryan to lose.
As for my selection, I predict that Peyton will lift the Lombardi trophy for the second time in his illustrious career. On Super Bowl Sunday, we will watch Peyton ruthlessly dissect the Saints’ defense while controlling the clock and keeping Brees and his four receiver sets off the field.
The last time Peyton won the Super Bowl, they had a great passing attack, a good running game and a suspect defense. It was this defense that led many experts to write off the Colts. This year, the Colts are once again led by a great passing attack and a more balancing running game. This time around, the one glaring difference is that despite missing some key players to injuries; the Colts defense looks much more complex and solid. The Saints will find it hard to run against the Colts and the Saints will have to rely on the pass.
We know the Colts will score on the Saints. What remains to be seen is how the Colts defensive backs will fair against the speedy receivers and the strong arm of Brees and the Saints. I believe Peyton eating up the clock will minimize the amount of possessions that Brees, Bush & Colston will get.
The game could be lower scoring than many believe. This is why I feel that the 4.5-point spread is a little bit too large however I feel that if the Colts can score early, the spread can be covered.
Sorry New Orleans. I know you took a beating and many will be cheering for you for all that hurricane Katrina put you through however the reality is, Peyton is the best quarterback of a generation.
I will take the Colts and give up 4.5 points to the sentimental favorite Saints.
More importantly, I look forward to be crowned Dignity Bowl Champion for 2010.
Marty’s Perspective
Here is what it comes down to: I am really cheering for New Orleans. I will be wearing my Brees jersey, and cheering hard. But the fact is that Peyton Manning is playing at the top of his game, and has been carving up defences like nobody’s business. The only way the Saints really take this one handily is if Curtis Painter has to make an unscheduled appearance.
Go Saints, But I will take the Colts -4.5
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I really like the city of New Orelans and where are the Colts from again? Oh yeah, Indianapolis, I don’t like it there. I want to pick the opposite of Ryan, so I’ll take New Orleans. (after much mumbling of numbers and addition) And I’ll take 55 points total.
Maria – You know the Colts are going to win right? So I’ll take the Saints. I’ve supported the Colts all along but I know the rest of you are going to pick the Colts, so I’ll take the Saints.
Norma
Norma: I will take the Colts -4.5. I am very confident in this pick.
Marty: ‘What are you taking for the tiebreaker?’
Norma: ‘Tiebreaker?’
Marty: ‘Yeah....total point...I am taking 50.’
Norma: ‘What does that mean?’
Marty: ‘Really? It’s the total of both teams points put together.’
Norma: ‘........’
Marty: ‘So I said it’s going to be 50. I think the final score will be something like 27-23. 27 + 23 = 50.’
Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
Friday, February 5, 2010
Is It Juventus’ Turn to Try The 3-man Defense?
Lately, there has been a lot of speculation that Alberto Zaccheroni will have Juventus switch to a 3-man defense, utilizing a 3-4-1-2 in order to keep Diego as a central playmaker. The first test of this new formation could be against a 3-5-2 employed by Livorno.
I firmly believe that formations need to vary depending on the players at a manager’s disposal and the opposition he is likely to face on a regular basis. With that in mind, take a look at the prospects of Zaccheroni’s Juventus and their potential new lineup.
Personnel
On defense, there would be some definite advantages to having Georgio Chiellini, Nicola Legrotaglie and Fabio Cannavaro on the pitch at the same time. Cannavaro would thrive as a sweeper while the other two work very well as marking defenders.
At the wingback position, Juventus has 3 players who could excel in Paolo De Ceglie, Martin Caceres and Zdenek Grygera. All 3 like to push forward, have decent pace and also defend well. They also operate better moving forward than when being asked to play a purely defensive role.
In the center of the midfield, Juventus has plenty of talent. Both Sissoko and Melo are best when used in a holding role while Candreva and Marchisio are solid two-way players. Pairing one tackler and one creator would ensure that the midfield had a spine while maintaining some distributive talent.
Both Diego and his understudy, Sebastian Giovinco, are capable of playing the trequartista role. Giovinco is also dangerous down the wing, while Diego has proven to be ineffective when moved out wide. Juventus have Mauro Camoranesi to use as a playmaker or down the wing if Diego is incapable.
At forward, the Bianconeri are currently a little thin due to injuries to David Trezeguet and Vincenzo Iaquinta. Luckily they have two top quality forwards in Amauri and Alessandro Del Piero to play at the moment. Unfortunately, neither has been playing very well this season.
Juventus definitely has the starting quality and depth to play either a 3-4-1-2 or a 3-4-3, with the only real question mark being depth behind the starters on the defensive line.
The 3-4-1-2 actually matches up reasonably well against the 4-3-1-2. The lack of midfield & attacking width in the 4-3-1-2 ensures that the space behind the wingbacks isn’t exploited easily. The team employing the 3-4-1-2 should have a definitive possession advantage in midfield, without giving up too much on defense. The 3-man backline works very well against 2 forwards and even provides the flexibility to step up if one of the forwards is dropping deep for the ball. The sweeper can cover the space behind the marker.
Against the 4-3-3, it appears that the 3 man back line is at a huge disadvantage. Unless the wingbacks drop back far enough to effective change the formation to a 5-man defense, the opposition wingers will always be able to exploit the space behind them. Giving up a wide attacking angle isn’t always a terrible thing, but on the counter-attack it could be devastating.
Utilizing a 3-4-3 for this match-up at least allows the wingbacks to drop a bit and maintain defensive width, but could leave the midfield overwhelmed.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
The Manning Family: A Guest Post from RWWF
As everyone knows, the Indianapolis Colts are playing the New Orleans in the Super Bowl on Sunday. So what has been the focus of this game since day one? How the Saints have finally gotten to their first Super Bowl or how New Orleans has rallied around the Saints this season, giving it a new life after the city was all but demolished by Hurricane Katrina a little over 4 years ago? No, of course not. The focus is the Manning family.
For anyone who hasn’t turned on a television for two weeks, let me briefly explain why. The Mannings are to New Orleans as the Kennedys are to Massachusetts (minus all the tragedies).
Archie, Peyton and Eli’s father, was drafted by the Saints (2nd overall) in 1971 and played for 10 years there. While the team never had a winning season, good old Archie played his heart out while he was there, despite having an awful team. In 1972, he led the NFL in passing yard, he was the UPI’s NFC Player of the Year in 1978, and he was in the Pro Bowl in ’78 and ’79. Even though he didn’t end his career as a Saint (he went to the Oilers from 82-83 and the Vikings from 83-84) he made his home in New Orleans. All three of his sons, Cooper, Peyton, and Eli grew up in New Orleans, graduated high school there, and I can only assume, were/are huge Saints fans.
As I said, the Mannings are royalty in New Orleans. Saints fans actually love the Manning family so much that they root for the Colts (I don’t know about the Giants—see my side note). There are a lots of #18 Colts jerseys and apparently during the 2006 Super Bowl, when the Colts played the Bears, many people in New Orleans decked out their houses out in blue and white. I can guarantee you that those blue jerseys have been put away and there will be no houses in blue and white come Sunday.
Side note: When Archie and his wife returned to their house in New Orleans after Katrina hit, they found that someone had broken into it. Archie had a bunch of signed jerseys from Peyton and Eli and the looters took all of Peyton’s; None of Eli’s. When I read this, it brought me more joy than I can explain in words.
So when the Saints won in overtime against the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl, who was the first person interviewed? Archie. Everyone wanted to know what team he would be rooting for February 7th, his favorite team or his
As a die-hard Patriots fan, when I set out to write a post about the Manning family, I had the intention of going off about how they are the bane of my existence and have brought me great pain and suffering and how I enjoy seeing one of their own play their favorite team. Instead, I have sat here and written about their love for the Saints, the Saints love for them, and how this game is bittersweet for them. God damn it. I have no idea how this happened. This makes me hate them even more.
The Manning family has won this round but let me just say that when it comes to Sunday, I will be full heartedly cheering for the Saints, for many reasons.
1. The Saints do truly need it! They’ve never been to a Super Bowl, let alone win one.
2. Peyton and the Colts have already won a Super Bowl (reminder: Brady has won 3, which, as of now, is more than the entire Manning family combined). Stop being selfish Peyton! In order to maintain his royal status in New Orleans, Peyton should throw the game in a non-obvious way. That would perhaps make me like him more. Ehh..probably not.
3. It would be a great way to start Mardi Gras. Technically Mardi Gras doesn’t start until the week after, but I think they would make an exception and just start it Sunday if the Saints won.
4. My brother goes to school at Tulane (for all you people who don’t know where it is, it’s in NOLA) and he says the city has gone Saints CRAZY. After the Vikings game and even the police officers setting off fireworks. The Saints have become his second favorite team and well, I love my brother and it would be awesome for him to be there when the Saints won the Super Bowl. I was at school in Boston when the Red Sox won broke the curse in 2004, so I feel that the Saints winning would be only fair.
Most importantly,
5. I HATE THE MANNING FAMILY AND WANT PEYTON TO LOSE!
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Superbowl Week - Thoughts on the Big Game, and Around the League
That said, one part I really like, is that we tend to hear some other stories from around the league, because players and coaches who aren’t playing tend to be more open and less guarded with the media.
Below are a few storylines I like that could have a big effect on the title game, and a few others that made me listen.
Key stories for the Big Game
We’ve all heard the story about Dwight Freeney’s ankle ad nauseum. As someone who has watched almost every Colts snap this season, this story can’t be overstated. Freeney is a difference-maker on defense. Other teams have to gameplan for him. Protection schemes are designed to stop him. According to Football Outsiders, Freeney was 4th in the league in QB Hurries (Mathis is 8th). What I do like, however, is that the Colts aren’t trying to hide the injury. This forces the Saints to have two gameplans; one to compensate for Freeney, and one when he’s not in the game.
The key to the matchup between the Colts defense and the Saints offense are safeties Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt. The Colts will be trying to take away the Saints deep passing offense, and they do it quite well. If Bethea and Bullitt can maintain coverage over the top, then Brees will be forced to be patient with underneath throws and the running game. Also, my assessment of Bob Sanders future with the Colts will be validated.
I can’t shake the memory of Joseph Addai in his rookie season making a monstrous contribution to the Colts’ Superbowl run. He and Dominic Rhodes were the perfect complement to Indy’s passing game, adding some offensive punch when opposing defenses played too deep. This year, the unsung hero could be Donald Brown. If the Saints continually drop 7 or 8 into coverage, Manning could just audible to run after run. The Saints aren’t very formidable versus the run. You get the picture.
Last time the Colts were in the Superbowl, the question surrounding their quarterback was “Can Peyton finally win a big game?” This time around the questions seems to be “Can anyone stop Peyton Manning?” It’s amazing how far his career has come in 4 years.
Other interesting notes from around the league
John Madden had a very interesting take on injuries in the NFL (KCBS radio from SF/Oakland/San Jose). He believes that players are wearing less padding now than they did when he was coaching. Players don’t wear knee pads or elbow pads and many positions play with smaller shoulder pads. Because of the lesser padding, he believes that defenders lead with their helmet more often. For starters, I’d never thought of that causal relationship, but it makes a lot of sense. Secondly, I think that we’ve forgotten how knowledgeable Madden can be, despite the fact that he slipped so dramatically as an announcer.
On the NFL Network, there was an interview with Chris Cooley, talking about his take on having Mike Shanahan as a coach. He was obviously quite excited to have an NFL coach with exceptional experience and pedigree, but he also mentioned the effect it could have on his role in the offense. Shanahan has an incredible knack for getting the tight end the ball, especially in the red zone. Not only that, but his new offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, was the man who oversaw Owen Daniels rise to the top of the NFL TE pass-catching list this year. Chalk up Chris Cooley as a high TE pick in your fantasy draft next year.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Chemotherapy for the Flames?
Friday, January 29, 2010
The Pro Bowl: Who Gives a Crap?
This year, there’s been more ducking out than at a Washington Wizards debt-settling session. To be honest, if I was player, I’d probably decline too.
There’s nothing in it for the players. Once they’ve been named to the squad, they are technically a “Pro Bowler” and also trigger the incentives in their contract. Why waste getting injured?
And to complicate matters further, I hear talk radio hosts blasting members of the Colts and Saints for not playing. Are you kidding me? These guys have a chance to win the Superbowl and someone out there thinks they should risk an injury the week BEFORE the big game?
I understand why the NFL put the most irrelevant all-star game on earth the week before tSuperbowl Sunday. Unfortunately they’ve missed the bigger point. No one cares about the Pro Bowl. It has nothing to do with when it’s played.
In baseball, hockey and basketball, the All-Star game is the equivalent of watching the best players in the world play a pick-up version of their pro sport. It’s entertaining, fast-paced (baseball excluded) and relatively free of injuries. For this to work for the NFL, the Pro Bowl would have to be a flag football game.
The NFL needs to scrap the Pro Bowl entirely. Just award the players with the Pro Bowl honor, like they do with an All-Pro team or Gold Glove awards. If they still want to attract a big audience, why not have a skills competition in the week leading up to the Superbowl?
I would watch a series of events each day that included the NFL’s Fastest Man or the Quarterback Challenge, the LenDale White Tequila Boat Race and even some type of defensive lineman obstacle course. I would legitimately be interested in the league’s most accurate long-snapper.
Most of all, the players would love to participate, because the risk of injury is non-existent and the bragging rights could earn them all kinds of endorsements.
Please Mr. Goodell, get rid of the Pro Bowl sham and give me a chance to root for D’Brickashaw Ferguson in the Offensive Lineman Cannonball finals.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
The Flames’ Momentum Swings Both Ways
This is the same team that started the season with a 7-2-1 record and was atop the Northwest division with a 25-12-5 record just 3 weeks ago. From hot to not, the Flames have found that the Momentum Mistress can turn on a team with a flutter of her evil eyelashes.
On paper, the team is loaded with NHL stars like Jerome Iginla, Olli Jokinen, Dion Phaneuf, Jay Bouwmeester and Miikka Kiprusoff. They have some great breakout players in Rene Bourque, Adam Pardy and Matt Giordano.
So what happened? Let’s take a look at some of the numbers.
The most obvious difference during the Flames losing streak is the significant drop in shooting percentage and save percentage. I know what you’re thinking. That seems obvious, and it is. The real question is “Why?”
The Flames are actually taking more shots per game and giving up less during their losing streak. The Flames might be taking more shots from distance and bad angles. Taking a look at the ESPN Shot Chart for Monday’s game versus the Blues doesn’t seem to indicate an issue. The Flames had at least 12 shots from the central third of the ice and inside the hashmarks.
This next table shows the likely culprit.
To be honest, I haven’t been watching closely enough to pinpoint problems on either unit, but I will be from now on, and will follow up with some insight. I’m just hoping that Coach Sutter and the rest of the team figure it out before I do.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Conference Championship Deep Outs
it looks like it might come down to the tiebreaker of total points. Good lord, please strike me down now!
Jets @ Colts:
It was a little bit of a surprise to see the Jets jump out to an early lead, but in the long run, there was no question as to who the better team was.
With 11 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the score was 17-13 in favour of the Jets, and in no one’s mind (at least mine!) there was no way the Colts would lose that game. It was at that point that the Colts took the ball, marched down field, and Manning connected on three consecutive passes to Austin Collie, the third for a TD. There was no looking back after that.
As expected, Darrell Revis basically eliminated Reggie Wayne from any AFC Championship Game MVP talk, so Manning did what Manning does best. He sliced and diced the Jets #1 rated defence for 377 yards and 3 scores.
This Colts team is scary good. They have all the tools on Offense:
- An RB, while not awesome, good enough to get you that first down, or take enough attention to make play action work
- An all-star wide out that will kill you deep, and a supporting cast that does enough to get open and garners enough attention to ensure that the best pass-catching tight end in the league is being covered by a LB, or god-willing, a D-Lineman.
- A fast and strong defence that is under-rated. They can stop the run upfront; put pressure on your QB, and hawk balls. That right, Ball Hawks.
They go to the Super Bowl behind rookie coach Jim Caldwell, who might not even talk. I am still inclined to believe he just lets Peyton Manning actually coach the team.
Vikings @ Saints:
I waited 15 weeks to see this game.
Honestly, week 5 of this season, on my weekly podcast (iTunes: Ultimate Football Talk) I uttered these words during our week 6 prediction podcast: ‘All I want at this point is to see a Saints-Vikings NFC Championship game!’ I may have added something on the end of that about Chargers-Colts, too, but hey, I was one Turner – Tomlinson combo away from that happening.
Anyways, obviously, I got my game, and BOY did it live up to all expectations!
The Saints offense was as predicted, pass heavy, and relying on Pierre Thomas when need to. It was their defence that was a little bit of a surprise, as they PUNISHED Favre all game, hitting him at every opportunity. They also did what they do best. They cause fumbles, and took advantage of the ‘gunslinger’ mentality of Favre. 5 fumbles (3 lost) and 2 picks later the saints were able to pull off somewhat of an upset. Let’s face it, everyone and their dog wanted to see Manning-Favre.
What the Vikings gave for turnovers, they got back in Penalties. The Saints gave back 88 yards on 9 penalties.
So where does the blame for this loss lie?
A. Peterson: He put the ball on the ground 3 times, although only losing 1. Add to the fact that he scored 3 TDs, and worked his sack off to recover one of his own fumbles, and I cannot point the finger at the man they call All-Day.
B. Bad Childress: Although he is one of the worst (if not THE worst) coach in the NFL, he relied on his superstars to win the game. I cannot point the finger at the man they call Major Dad.
C. Jared Allen: Although it was not his best game as a Viking, he was in Drew Brees’ kitchen all day; causing havoc for the man they call The Birthmark. I cannot point the finger at the man they call The Mullet.
D. Brett Favre: Wow, gutsy! Nice image seeing Favre limp back onto the field after getting rolled up on. He proceeded to go 5-9 for 80 yards, but more importantly, threw an UGLY pick with just 7 seconds left in the game while the Vikings were in FG range, albeit a LONG(well) field goal. He never saw the ball again, and it is quite possible that his last throw as a pro was similar to Kurt Warner’s: an UGLY interception. Sayonara Brent. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out! Call me a Favre hater (more of a Vikings hater), but HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
PS – Joe Buck is the worst commentator ever! That is not totally true...Jim Nance + Phil Simms is worse, and whaddya know, I have to listen to these two weenies for the Super Bowl.
So it’s set: Colts Vs. Saints in Superbowl XXIV. I am excited to see this game! My Early prediction is the Colts will win on a final 2 minute drive, Manning to Clark TD making the final Colts 31, Saints 28.
These two teams deserve to be there, and it WILL be a good one!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
The Dignity Bowl – NFL Conference Championships
Sure, both Tonight Show hosts have infinitely more hair than chrome-domers like Marty and I, but Sports Opinionated has the football predictive skills of Kim, Maria, and Norma. We’ve been trying to sign Triumph, but he’s holding out for more things to poop on.
As you probably read in Deep Outs this week, the writers went 7-5 last weekend and are now 11-13 overall. We’re not exactly proud of that number, but luckily the women who raised us went 5-7 last weekend and stand at 7-17 overall.
This weekend offers more thrills, spills and hopefully two correct picks for me, I need it.
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New York Jets @ Indianapolis -7.5
Ryan’s Perspective
This game has a ton of subplots and psychological factors that could impact the outcome. The Colts might really regret sitting their starters in week 16 if the Jets improbably knock them out the playoffs. This would be after also ruining their perfect season on questionable terms.
On the other hand, the Colts should be motivated to prove they can beat the Jets without a problem, rendering the undefeated debate meaningless.
I’ve spent all week pouring over this game. I had convinced myself that the Colts would win, but the Jets would keep it close. Then a few small pieces of information came together to convince me that the Jets could fall apart faster than Mark McGwire’s reputation.
1. The Bengals & Chargers missed 5 straight FGs against the Jets. That’s pure luck. It won’t continue.
2. Peyton Manning spreads the ball around better than any QB in the league. This limits the impact of the immortal Darelle Revis.
3. The Colts completely shut down the Ravens offense, which is very similar in design to the Jets defense.
4. The Ravens offense is WAY better than the Jets offense.
5. The Colts defence is 10 times scarier when they have a lead.
I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 7.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Colts could have finished off the Jets weeks ago. That was the game Jim Caldwell took out the starters both on offence and defense. The Jets came back to win the game and destroy any hopes that the Colts had for having an undefeated season. That game helped the Jets squeak into the playoffs and left Caldwell being second-guessed by the media, fans and even some members of his own team.
This is where we find out if Jim Caldwell was right.
The goal of every team at the start of the season is to play for a chance at winning the Super Bowl. This weekend the Colts will take another step towards Miami. I have said in the past that the New York Jets seem like a good playoff team. Solid defense, good special teams, a great running attack and a great offensive line. All that being said, they have the tough task of playing the most cerebral quarterback in the NFL. I look to the Jets offence stuttering while facing a more versatile and complex defense (compared to previous Colts defenses) despite missing their 2 best defensive backs (Sanders & Jackson).I’ll take Peyton and the Colts and give the 7 & ½ points.
Marty’s Perspective
Man o Man, this one is hard. Straight up, it’s a no brainer. I think the Colts win, and go on to fulfil their destiny as Super Bowl losers. But when you add 7.5 points into the mix, it makes it a whole 'nother ball game.
I look at what the Jets did last week, and compare the matchups. The Chargers have a tough time running the ball, and are a one dimensional offence. Wow, so are the Colts. Actually, the Colts are the only team in the NFL WORSE at rushing the ball than the Chargers were. On defence, the Chargers were good against the pass, but had trouble stopping the run. The Colts? Strong against the pass as well and here is the one difference....They are good against the run, too. Hmmmmm.....
Last week, the Chargers managed to stop the run for the first half, but the Jets just kept on running the ball....and eventually, it was what took the Jets to Indy.
Another difference: Even with the Jets strong defence, Manning has proven in the past he can dissect a defence like a surgeon. I mean, there is a reason why he is the best player in football today. (Damn, that hurt to say!)
For those reasons, this game is a TOUGHIE!
I told my mom last night I was taking the Jets, but I have changed my pick. I have to. I think the Colts win, and win big. I think Manning puts up 2 early scores, and the Jets are just not built to come back when trailing.
My Pick: Colts -7.5
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The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – The Jets. I picked them based on which team had warmer jersey colors.
Maria - Colts! Obviously. I am not interested in the Jets. I don’t know their players and I know a lot of Colts players. I have no time to discuss the (many) reasons why I am picking the Colts. No time.
Norma - I've kinda liked them all the way along. Manning is a pretty good QB, he has some good WRs. I don't think the Jets won last week, I think the Chargers lost.
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Minnesota @ New Orleans -3.5
Ryan’s Perspective
I know a lot of people are jumping on the Vikings bandwagon after last weekend’s annihilation of the Cowboys. I just can’t do it.
For starters, Sean Payton could outcoach Brad Childress even if he was only allowed 10 men on the field. I’ve rarely seen an offense so adept at exploiting the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
The Saints offense is the 5th most efficient passing and the most efficient running attack in the league. They can adapt to what the defense does poorly. In the Vikings case, their secondary can’t cover. The Saints could blow the top off the Superdome with an aerial display.
For those of you thinking the Vikings offense could do the same to New Orleans defense, think again. The team at Football Outsiders says their game charting shows Jabari Greer as the 2nd best cornerback in the league behind Revis. Greer will definitely be draped over Sidney Rice all game. The Saints also had the 9th best pass defense in the league according to DVOA.
The Saints run defence is definitely susceptible up the middle, but if the Vikings fall behind by more than 7 points, it won’t matter much.
Finally, if you haven’t heard the song Prince wrote for the Vikings, check it out here. The audio player is on the right.
That is the most uninspiring piece of audio garbage I’ve heard in a while. As my wife said when I played it for her, “that’s humiliating”. And she LOVES Prince. This can't be a good karmic sign for the Vikings.
All signs point against the Vikings making it to another big dance. I’ll take the Saints despite giving up 3.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Vikings may (or may not) have ran up the score versus a peaking Cowboys team. I do love how Keith Brooking got mad at the Vikings for throwing that late touchdown, despite the Cowboys calling several time outs to preserve the clock. If you don’t want a team to play their hardest against you Keith, you should stop trying yourselves as well.
The Saints dominated the potent Cardinals and helped put to bed any concerns regarding their defense. Drew Brees and especially Mr. Kim Kardashian looked good in making the Cardinals look like terrible.
No doubt, this could be the game of the playoffs. Well, if it wasn’t for the Packers-Cardinals round 1 game.
The Vikings defense relies on getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run. Any team that can block Allen and co. will have a much easier time beating the Vikings. This is what the game will come down to: the Saints O-line vs. the Vikings D-line. The Saints don’t rely on the running game and as such the run-stopping Williams duo won’t factor into the game much.
I just can’t see the Saints O-line blocking effectively versus the terror that is Jared Allen and I think Favre and Co. will be even better this week.
Don’t you think Favre would have been a good fit for the city known as the Big Easy?
I’ll take the Vikings and the 3 & ½ points.
Marty’s Perspective
This one is a no brainer for me.
I find these two teams very equal. They both have great offenses, although the edge would go to the Saints just on the fact that, well, I like that offense more.
The Vikings have a D-Line that could stop a Mack truck in its place. The Saints have a D-backfield that will give up yards, but will also cause turnovers, and are known to just plain Hawk the ball...that right, they are ball hawks.
I consider special teams to be equal. Harvin and Bush are both equally dangerous.
Where the differences come in this game are in Coaching and Home Field Advantage, which both favour the Saints.
I would rather have a garden gnome coaching my team than Brad Childress. Sean Peyton has proven to be a mad scientist with his offense, and will have new formations and plays up his sleeve to give the Vikings fits. And when they connect on these plays, the top might just pop of the Superdome like it’s a bottle of diet Pepsi, and a Mentos breath mint was just dropped in. Not only do the Saints win, but they win big, and the loss is placed squarely on the shoulders of one Brett Favre. 31-14 Saints, 3 picks by Favre.
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The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – The Vikings. I picked them based on which team had warmer jersey colors.
Maria - I’ll pick the Saints because the Vikings got whipped last weekend, they lost last weekend. No wait, not the saints...uh I don't know. I am being pressured to pick the Vikings. What was the vikings vs saints game last weekend? What was the final score? I better look into this. Wait the Saints and Vikings both won last week...I then...obviously, will be pick the Vikings although the Saints have not lost at home.
Norma - I have to go with Favre. I believe he has come this far, he will go to the Superbowl. I sure hope his team is there to back him up.
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Final Words
Here is a summary of our picks
Hopefully the games this weekend will be more entertaining than Chad Ochocinco’s bus trip. I’m still disappointed I didn’t get picked for the ride.
Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Serie A – Not So Lonely At the Top
Unfortunately, in the last few years the Serie A has been a blowout. Inter has run away with the Scudetto and frankly the only competitions that mattered were for second to fourth place and the relegation battles.
This season, however, is shaping up a little differently. Inter looked to be running away with it again, but have stumbled lately. Milan is 6 points back with a game in hand. Only 5 points separates 3rd place Roma from 8th place Fiorentina. This year could provide a sprint to the finish that we haven’t seen in a while.
And with the race this tight, the weekend will provide two titanic matchups; Inter vs Milan and Roma vs Juventus.
Here are my thoughts on the two matches:
Milan-Inter
Last time around, Inter embarrassed a Milan team that was still adapting to life under Leonardo.
This time around, Milan are hotter than a Silvio Berlusconi mistress. Inter, on the other hand have looked shaky in their wins and have given points away to Atalanta and Bari in the last few weeks.
Milan’s keys to victory:
Marco Borriello needs to continue making the most of his chances. He has worked wonders with the service he has been given lately and he’ll need another timely strike or two to help Milan offensively. He isn’t much of a threat with the ball at his feet, but has been able to steer some danger towards the opposition goal with his head and a knack for volleying at just the right time.
Thiago Silva will also need to elevate his game. His speed and agility will be put to the test against Diego Milito and Goran Pandev, especially with Alessandro Nesta injured. If Silva can’t keep the box clear, it will be a long day for Milan.
Inter’s keys to victory:
This squad badly needs Douglas Maicon to find his form again. If he can surge forward in attack, he’ll force Ronaldinho to cover defensively and steal his focus from guiding the Milan attack. Maicon is also fully capable of negating Ronaldinho on the defensive end with a physical style of defense.
Inter may have found the Serie A signing of the summer in Wesley Sneijder. He has been the play-maker they hoped for and a huge threat on free kicks. If Milan allow Sneijder time on the ball or space to operate, Inter will score several.
Roma-Juventus
Another story of two clubs currently going in opposite directions. Juventus and Roma met at the start of the Serie A season. The first matchup was a clear win for Juventus and appeared to mark Diego’s arrival as the next Serie A superstar.
Now, Juventus are in crisis, which seemed so unlikely after destroying Inter just a few weeks ago. Roma, on the other hand are surging up the table on a hot streak.
Juventus’ keys to victory:
The Old Lady signed Diego this offseason for a very specific reason. They needed someone to create chances for their offense and a strong stable of strikers. For Juventus to return to form, Diego needs to play grittier, refuse to be denied the ball and make defenders pay for marking him too close. He is a magician with the ball at his feet but needs to find his confidence again. Both Mexes and Juan are capable of being beaten on the break, Diego needs to exploit that.
Another disappointing player this season has been Amauri. He has looked lost out there for most of the season, despite being Juve’s best player last campaign. Amauri needs to stop worrying about whether he’s Brazilian or Italian and just perform on the pitch. If he doesn’t, he won’t be playing for either national team.
Roma’s keys to victory:
Luca Toni has looked fantastic so far in a few games with Roma. He provides a target up front and frees Francesco Totti to play in the hole, and Mirko Vucinic to terrorize the wing or drop off to link with midfield. If Toni can continue to provide the dangerous presence up front, it will provide much more space for his side’s creative players.
Danielle De Rossi is one of the premier tacklers in all of Serie A. His job on Sunday will be to disrupt Juve’s buildup through midfield and make life miserable for Diego. If he can frustrate the small Brazilian and make him work for touch of the ball, then Roma have a great chance to keep the Bianconeri’s offense stagnant.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Questionable NFL Coaching Movement
Does Norv have pictures of Dean Spanos wife?
For starters, the San Diego Chargers handed Norv Turner a 3 year contract extension. Go ahead, read that sentence again, I had to. Norv inhereted what most of us thought was the most talented team in the NFL and has a 32-16 record while going 3-3 in the playoffs. That's quite good on the surface, but as most of us know, Norv continually finds ways to blow close games. He may not tighten up like Marty Schottenheimer did, but he's far from a guy I'd be handing an extra 3 years.
His teams seem to self destruct in big moments and he frequently mishandles the clock and key decisions at the end of games.
The timing of the extension was also curious to me. How do you hand your coach another 3 years of confidence less than 24 hours after a playoff loss in which his team was heavily favored?
Is McDaniels the "Lumberg" of the NFL?
The second big piece of coaching news this week is the saga surrounding Mike Nolan. For those that haven't heard, Josh McDaniels and Mike Nolan had some sort of disagreement, and have decided to part ways. I have no idea what to make of this one. Do people just hate being around McDaniels at this point?
For starters, Nolan took the Broncos defense from 31st in DVOA last season to 7th in the league during the 2009 campaign. The defense was the real strong point of the Denver season and helped them lock in big wins like the one early in the season against New England. I'm not sure what happened, but Nolan has quickly latched on as the defensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins.
So now McDaniels has traded a franchise quarterback (and I use that term loosely) after alienating him, lost his star defensive coordinator and is still pushing out two productive members of the offense in Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler.
I roasted McDaniels for the Cutler situation, and frankly I think he was smarter than I after seeing how Cutler played in Chicago. And let's be honest, Brandon Marshall is a whiny b*tch a lot of the time. So where does Mike Nolan fit in? I look forward to hearing any juicy news that leaks about this one.
Who was next on the list, Lane Kiffin?
So...apparently no big-name candidates are interested in the Buffalo Bills job. And also, no small-name candidates are interested either. Does this resume sound like something that should excite the Bills fan base?
1984-2001 Various NFL positions, 2 as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys
2002-2007 Head Coach of Georgia Tech, amassing a 37-27 record. Fired in 2007
2008-2009 Offensive Coordinator of the KC Chiefs and demoted after 3 pre-season games in 2009
2010 - THE NEW BUFFALO BILLS HEAD COACH!
In the last 8 years, Chan Gailey has guided GT to a mediocre 5-year record and has been demoted from the offensive coordinator role on a terrible NFL team. This isn't exactly a great first hire for new GM Buddy Nix. I would like to apologize to all Bills fans in advance for the pain you're about to go through in 2010. It's not going to be pretty.
Let us know what you think of a few of the moves and if there are any of missed.
UPDATE JAN 20 - It appears that McDaniels may have forced Nolan out of Denver by telling him that he wouldn't be allowed to blitz as much next season. Nolan didn't like McDaniels dictating the defensive philosophy to him and left. There's also quite a few conspiracy theories floating around that McDaniels didn't like a former NFL head coach (Nolan) on his staff in case Pat Bowlen decided to part ways with him mid-season.
Also, our good friend Sarah over at RWWF had a great take on the Chan Gailey hire. Check it out here.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Division Round Deep Outs - Dignity Bowl Update!

















